Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics by Mo

Lies, damned lies and statistics – who knew Disraeli was a BBC player? The best thing that worked for me was a more holistic approach – to look at the game of baseball as it’s played and to forget the mathematics of probability. Most stats that are fine grained enough to apply to individual batters and pitchers – BVSP and the like - are merely perfect predictors of the past. I believe they are of little help in predicting what will happen next.

Rather than indulge in the micro-trends, the only stat I look at now are the macro-trends. How does a hitter do against LHP\RHP? Baseball managers set their own lineups using this – how can I ignore it? How much does this team K? Beyond these, I look at baseball as a game – good hitters are good hitters. Bad pitchers are bad pitchers. Just match ’em up and go.

So without stats, how do you choose? I like to pick against journeyman pitchers, they are a known quantity – both to me and to the hitters who face them. It took me a long, long time to stop picking against rookies facing teams like the Yankees and Boston. They never seem to get lit up like I expect. I like to take midweek getaway day pitchers. I like to take 3,4, or 5 hitters – for obvious reasons.

Ballpark is a huge determinant – I bet I haven’t taken a guy in Petco or Metco all year, no matter how favorable the matchup. Rarely take anyone in Dodger Stadium or San Francisco either.

So what didn’t work? My main enemy is carelessness, especially on the weekend when I often set lineups quickly. I took Ortiz in an NL park, for example. Pure carelessness.

All too often I don’t trust my instincts on pitching and follow the herd. That has cost me to no end. It’s only when I get on a losing streak and I say to heck with it that I go with my instincts and take the PS regardless of the herd. And almost always it’s a good move.

I tend to take guys from the same teams and venues – need to expand out of my comfort zone. May be the reason I’m still too streaky, as those teams go, so do my BBC fortunes.

So that’s the first half in a nutshell – I should end up on the LB this half, somewhere in the upper 40s.

Thanks for indulging me by reading this and thanks to Gomer for providing this opportunity. Good luck second half.

- Mo -