Posts
YESTERDAY
I am really beginning to get nervous. The streak I have been on lately has to come crashing to an end sometime and the longer this run goes, the worse I fear it will be. Led by Zobrist (12) and a handful of 5's and 6's, my bats combined for 42 last night. King Felix was once again a stud and his 32 gave me a total of 74 on the day. This was good enough for a 9 spot jump, up to #13 overall (I hate that number, though). I feel pretty safe on the Leaderboard for now, with a 75 point lead over 50th place. So when are people going to start believing in Felix again? If he was anywhere other than Seattle, he would be an automatic pick.
TODAY
Weather:
Blue Jays/Phillies 70%
Nats/ Yankees 70%
Marlins/Red Sox 60%
I will be watching this closely tonight and suggest that you do the same. Since these are interleague games, I would think that they will do everything they can to get them in, but be extremely careful here. It is now 7 pm and neither the Yankees or the Phillies games look very promising. I believe I will stay away from both of them. If I make a late night change, I will update you at the top of the page, but I really don't think it will happen.
Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Braves, Twins, Marlins, A's
Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Reds vs. Hanson (1-0 6.17 in 2 starts)
Braves vs. Maloney (0-1 4.50 in 2 starts)
Yankees vs. Stammen (0-2 5.86 in 5 starts, but weather is in play)
Mets vs. Berken (1-3 7.32 in 4 starts)
Dodgers vs. Mizzaro (2-1 1.37 in 3 starts)
Matchups to avoid:
A. Hill (1-12)
Laird (1-10)
C. Lee (0-8)
Guillen (2-16)
DeJesus (0-13)
Pitchers:
Joba (3-1 3.84, 58 K in 63 IP, 6 IP or less in 7 of last 8, 0-1 5.33 at home, weather is issue)
Duke (7-4 3.10, 2-2 3.51 on road, 2-0 4.29 in June, at Minn)
Blackburn (5-2 3.31, low K's, 2 R or less in 4 of last 5, 2-0 3.86 at home, vs Pitt)
Z (4-2 3.39, 1-0 0.61 in June, 1-1 4.62 at home, vs. CWS)
Garza (4-4 3.63, at Coors)
Jimenez (5-6 3.92, 2-0 2.74 in June, vs. Tampa)
Porcello (7-4 3.71, 4-2 3.25 on road, 1-1 4.41 in June, at StL)
Pinero (5-7 3.99, low K's, 3 R or more in 6 of last 7, vs. Det)
Haren (5-4 2.20, 9p K in 94 IP, 1-1 1.17 in June, 1-1 2.63 on road, .204 BAA at KC)
Wolf (3-2 3.41, rocked in 3 of last 5, 0-1 4.53 at home)
My final three choices here are Blackburn, Zambrano, and Haren. As well as I have done lately, I don't want to blow it by trying to be a hero, so Blackburn is out. Since Big Z is, in my opinion unreliable, I will go with Haren of the Desert again. I think that, in the end, he will be the most popular pick and I think that is the safest play in this case.
First:
Tex (vs. rookie with weather in play)
Howard (1-2 with weather)
Overbay (3-9, HR with weather)
Morneau (vs. good lefty starter)
Lee
Konerko (7-22. 4HR vs. good starter)
Gonzalez (0-1 and hasn't homered in a while = due)
Huff (5-8, 2HR)
Youk (weather)
Pujols (vs. good starter)
Berkman (10-18, 2HR)
Giambi (2-2, 2HR)
I can eliminate a few guys due to weather and a few more who are struggling to get down to Youk, Gonzalez, Pujols and Berkman. Fat Al has a good pitcher to face and Berkman's numbers are way too good to pass on.
Second:
Phillips (vs. rookie)
Cano (vs. rookie with weather)
Utley (0-3 with weather)
Roberts (4-8)
Pedroia (weather)
Uggla (1-3 vs. lefty)
Kinsler (1-3 and smokes it at home)
While I like Roberts alot, he costs more thanKinsler and has no where near the same amount of power. Kinsler is an easy one.
Third:
ARoid (vs. rookie with weather)
Longoria (at Coors)
Wright (vs. rookie)
Young (10-13, 2HR)
Wright has been doing a great job for me and I have taken him alot lately, but even though Young has been struggling a little, his numbers are again too good to pass up. He is also cheap at only 4.2 mil.
Short:
Jeter (vs. rookie with weather)
Zobrist (at Coors)
Bartlett (at Coors)
Hanley (1-3 vs. lefty)
Tejada (4-12, HR)
Cabrera (12-38 vs. lefty)
Lester is too good right now for me to spend that kind of money on Hanley, so it's either Zo, Bartlett, or Tejada. I want Zo at Coors.
Left:
Damon (vs. rookie with weather)
Ibanez (0-2 with weather)
With both of my guys in the weather zone, I have to look outside the box on this one. Man, this position sucks tomorrow. I'll come back to it.
Center:
Beltran (vs. rookie)
Ellsbury (weather)
Beltran - no brainer.
Right:
Bruce (vs. rookie)
Rios (5-15, HR with weather)
Magglio (9-22)
Cruz (N/A)
Upton (0-2)
I don't trust Mags or Bruce and while Cruz has been slumping, Backe is miserable and I think he will have men on all day.
DH:
Matsui (vs. rookie with weather)
Thome (4-12 vs. good starter)
Scott (1-3, HR)
I'm not touching Thome, but Luke Scott is a very serviceable option against Livan.
Catcher:
Mauer (vs. good lefty starter in a day game)
AJ (5-15. Hr vs. good starter in day game)
Yadi (night game vs. good starter)
Martin (night game, but is 1 for his last 16)
Varitek (night game with weather)
Pudge (night game)
Varitek is amazingly having a decent season and will surely start for the Sox. Book it.
So now I come back to left. I can have anyone I want here, but who? Ultimately, Jason Bay is the best choice. Add him to the lineup and here is the final.....
FINAL LINEUP
C: Varitek
1B: Berkman
2B: Kinsler
3B: Young
SS: Zobrist
LF: Bay
CF: Beltran
RF: Cruz
DH: Scott
PS: Haren of the Desert
STAT CORNER
Every point counts. Lets look at the leaders in WHIP over the last 30 days:
Carp 0.73
Haren 0.74
Floyd 0.82
Vazquez 0.87
Beckett 0.89
Bergeson 0.95
Lester 0.96
Outmann 0.97
Baker 0.98
Lince 0.98
CC 0.99
DISCLAIMER
My picks are my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, do so at your own risk. Thanks for reading, feel free to make a suggestion, please come again and.....
FU Kerry Wood!
No comments:
Post a Comment