Tuesday, the 30th

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the end of June. It's interesting to me how much pitching dictates this game. Yeah, BBC is heavily wieghed on our staffs, but as much as we complain about bad pitching, is it really that bad? Last night we saw 4 of the top 5 staffs go for 29 points or more. Today, as you will see below, there are no less than 17 of the 30 starters with ERA's under 4. Is pitching as bad as we think it is? In a word, no. Picking the right one however, is what it is all about. If you have a crystal ball, you will have success. If you don't, well....So, maybe we are looking at the wrong thing. Do you know what the cummulative save percentage is in the majors this year? Check out the Star Corner to find out, along with the bullpen ERA's of some of the best pitchers. Yesterday, I promised the best of July from last year. Instead, I will focus on bullpens. Be sure to give it a look. It may change your perspective on the whole game.

YESTERDAY

I see that pretty much everyone had pitching success last night as I mentioned above. If you had Halladay, you may not feel so good right now, but someone had to go down. Lince continues to prove himself as one of the elite starts of this game with his 38 points. Unfortunately, I went without a home run yet again and my bats totalled only 23 for the night. Nonetheless, the 61 total points was good enough to get me back up to #10 overall, 75 points out of the top 5.

TODAY

It looks like it is all about the Carp today, as he runs away as the most popular pick. The bats will determine alot today as there were some pretty poor matchups to choose from. If you have Haren, you oculd be in for a move today, one way or the other. Here's the final again.....

C: Posada
1B: Pujols
2B: Kinsler
3B: ARod
SS: Hanley
LF: Willingham (El Cheapo Especial)
CF: Upton
RF: Upton
DH: Teahen (why?)
PS: Carp

TOMORROW

Weather:
Cubs/Pirates 60%
White Sox/Indians 50%
I see nothing to fear, but will check it again by the end of the night.

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Rays, Royals, Rockies, Tigers, Braves, White Sox, Yankees, Mariners

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Cubs vs. Vazquez (1-0 3.00 in 1 start)
Astros vs. Silva (0-1 9.35 in 4 starts)

Bats to Avoid:
Davis (0-8 vs. starter)
M. Izturis (2-13)
E. Aybar (2-11)
Mathis (2-10)
DeRosa (1-9)
Rollins (3-15)
Ruiz (1-12)
VMart (3-25)
Hafner (3-24)
Konerko (1-9)
H. Matsui (2-14)
Melky (0-13)
Tulo (1-8)
Crosby (0-8)
Inge (1-9)
Francouer (6-33)
K. Johnson (3-17)
Prado (3-16)
Escobar (1-13)
Kubel (4-25)
Crede (3-15)
Mauer (2-14, HR)
B. Harris (2-13)
Span (1-9)
Casilla (1-8)
Scutaro (3-22)
Wells (3-19, HR)
Barajas (2-12)
Rolen (1-9)
Zaun (2-12)
C. Izturis (2-11)

Pitchers:
Johnson (7-1 2.76, 4-1 1.94 at home, 1.08 WHIP, 3-0 2.95 in June, 1-0 4.26 vs. Was this year)
Shields (6-5 3.41, at Tor)
Romero (5-3 3.20, 4-1 2.90 at home, 3-1 2.36 in June, vs. Tam)
Beckett (9-3 3.48, 94 K in 98 IP, 5-3 4.03 on road, 4-1 1.51 in June, 1-0 4.50 vs. Bal this year)
Bergeson (5-2 3.76, Low K's, 3-0 2.23 in June, vs. Bos)
Gallardo (8-4 2.86, 102 K in 97 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 4-2 2.66 at home, 3-0 2.20 in June, 0-0 0.00 vs. Mets this year)
Kershaw (5-5 3.70, 83 K in 82 IP, 2-2 2.06 at home, 2-2 2.36 in June, 1-1 10.13 vs. Col this year)
Verlander (8-3 3.40, 124 K in 103 IP, 1.20 WHIP, 4-3 4.88 on road, 2-1 2.91 in June, at Oak)
Braden (5-7 3.26, 1-2 2.51 in June, 0-1 10.80 vs. Det this year)
Jurrjens (5-6 2.93, 1-0 0.00 vs. Phi ytd)
Washburn (4-5 3.22, 1.19 WHIP, 1-2 2.81 in June, at NYY)
Wells (2-3 2.57, 1.09 WHIP, 1-1 2.20 on road, at Pit)
Cueto (7-4 2.86, 1.14 WHIP, vs. Zona)
Weaver (8-3 2.65, 1.10 WHIP, at Tex)
Millwood (8-5 2.64, 6-1 2.17 at home, 4-1 1.30 in June, 1-0 3.00 vs. LAA)
Cain (9-2 2.57, 4-1 2.72 on road, 1-0 1.42 vs. StL)
Wainwright (8-5 3.51, 3-4 2.55 at home, 0-1 5.14 vs. SF)
This is a tough call for me. I like Johnson, but not as much as Gallardo and Verlander. Yoga is better in season ERA, WHIP, the home/road matchup and June stats. Verlander only wins in strikeouts and He is in on the road in the AL vs. at home in the NL. Both opponents suck. Still, I liked Justin from the beginning and I still do. He is my man tomorrow. Also, Gallardo may well be the most popular pick and I really need to go against the grain in order to catch up. If going against the grain means Verl at Oakland, I think it's worth a shot.

First:
Overbay (7-20, 2HR vs. good starter)
Huff (10-32, HR vs. good starter)
Price (1-1)
Morneau (10-29, 2HR)
Giambi (3-10, HR vs. good starter)
Kotchman (4-11, 3HR vs. lefty)
Votto (1-2)
Pujols (4-8, HR vs. good starter)
Gonzalez (5-10)
Prince, Votto, Morneau and Gonzo are worth another look. Alex is not hitting as well as the others this week and Prince has better numbers vs. righties than Morneau. He also has more power than Votto. Prince it is.

Second:
Hill (4-11. HR vs. good starter)
Roberts (9-33, HR vs. good starter)
Barmes (3-6, HR vs. good lefty)
Polanco (7-14 vs. lefty)
Phillips (6-14, 2HR)
This one is all about Hill and Phillips. Hill faces the tougher pitcher, so Phillips is the way to go.

Third:
Zimmerman (4-12 vs. good starter)
Wiggy (8-25, 3HR vs. good starter)
Hall (2-3)
Chipper (6-17, HR vs. lefty)
ARod (15-47, 6HR vs. lefty)
Beltre (3-8 vs. lefty)
To put it simply, I don't want to be the one that did not have Alex with those numbers. No brainer.

Short:
Hanley (n/a vs. good starter)
Zimmerman has been very good in June, so I have to go outside for this one. Is it a mistake that Renteria is the lowest prices shortstop? He is hitting .400 on a 5 game hitting streak. Damn, I can't pass that up and will save big bucks in doing so.

Left:
Spilborghs (4-7, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Holliday (1-2 vs. good starter)
Thames (4-8, HR vs. lefty)
Podsednik (3-8 vs. lefty)
Gomes (2-6, HR)
Abreu (14-45, HR vs. good starter)
Duncan (3-7, HR vs. good starter)
Lewis (3-6 vs. good starter)
None of these guys excite me at all. Braun has never faced Pelphrey and I have heard a lot of players giving up on him in the last few days. I'll admit thathe has disapointed me as well, but when everyone bails on a guy, it seems that that that is the best time to take him. Gimme.

Center:
Upton (n/a)
Gerut (6-9, HR)
Kemp (1-2)
Fowler (3-6 vs. good lefty)
Sizemore (9-23, 3HR)
Tavares (4-6)
Hunter (13-32, 2HR vs. good starter)
Rowand (6-17 vs. good starter)
I like Upton, Kemp and Sizemore here. Grady has let me down a few times as well, but with good numbers vs. Contreras and low cost, I will risk it again.

Right:
Cuddyer (6-11)
Hawpe (2-4, HR vs. good lefty)
Mags (4-10, 2HR vs. lefty)
Ichiro (12-30 vs. lefty)
Upton (3-6, 2HR vs. good starter)
Vlad (25-75, 4HR vs. good starter)
Ichiro hits .353 vs. lefties and has multi hit games in 7 of his last 8. WHile I like Upton, Hawpe and Vlad, they all face good pitchers and are not playing in a little league version of Yankee Stadium.

DH:
Johnson (5-9 vs. good starter)
Scott (6-11, HR vs. good starter)
Stewart (2-2 vs. good lefty)
Thome (4-8, 3HR vs. lefty)
Griffey (18-53, 2HR vs. lefty)
Blalock (8-21, HR vs. good starter)
Byrd (5-12 vs. good starter)
I hate to do it, but I'm gonna give Thome a chance vs. the lefty. All others I like are facing good starters.

Catcher:
Olivo (2-3)
Ianetta (2-6 vs. good lefty)
Suzuki (3-8 vs. good starter)
Laird (4-9 vs. lefty)
McCann (9-24 vs. lefty)
Johjima (1-3 vs. lefty)
This group is a pretty nappy bunch too. I guess I will run with Napoli, but I'mnot happy about it.

Now, I have 1.9 mil left over and the only weak spot I have (aside from catcher) is Renteria. Jeter hits .455 vs. lefties and is 12 for 37 vs. Washburn in his career. How I left him off the initial list, I do not know. I will upgrade there.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Napoli
1B: Prince
2B: Phillips
3B: ARod
SS: Jeter
LF: Braun
CF: Sizemore
RF: Ichiro
DH: Thome
PS: Verlander

STAT CORNER

So what is the overall save percentage in the majors this year? 65%. Can you believe that? So let's look at some of our favorite starters and their pens. Keep in mind that these stats are not only for closers, but for the bullpen as a whole. This list includes some of our favorite starters, followed by their bullpens ERA, and then their pens' save percentage. The more upsetting numbers are in bold:

Beckett - 2.89 pen ERA - 76% of saves converted
King Felix - 3.16 - 68%
Bills - 3.31 - 61%
Cueto - 3.34 - 83%
Lince - 3.45 - 65%
Gallardo - 3.66 - 67%
Johan - 3.73 - 67%
Vazquez - 4.03 - 65%
Carp - 4.04 - 78%
Halladay - 4.06 - 54%
Harden - 4.13 - 61%
Johnson - 4.22 - 62%
CC - 4.27 - 73%
Millwood - 4.29 - 81%
Verlander - 4.43 - 62%
Greinke - 4.64 - 54%
Haren - 4.96 - 61%
Lee - 5.03 - 50%
Weaver - 5.41 - 68%

Keep in mind also that there have been 79 complete games pitched this year out of roughly 2250 games (3.5%) and that the average start has been 5.84 innings. Now of course the best of the best average more than that, maybe 7 Ip per start or so. Either way you know that, in all likelihood, you are going to have to put your fate in the hands of your pen. So, I ask you:

1. Are you picking a starter, or an entire staff?
2. Which should you be picking?
3. Did this game just get a little bit harder?

DISCLAIMER

My picks are my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, do so at your own risk. Thanks for reading, please come again, pass the word, and.....

FU For Life, Kerry Wood!