Tuesday, the 4th

Good morning, everyone. I figure its about that time again where we will begin to see some people start to fall of and quit on the game due to poor results. I get that, I really do. However, keep in mind how fast things can change. Like many of you, I have had good and bad seasons in BBC. I thought for a minute that this half would be one of them after the famed Nick MF'n Blackburn incident. Did I quit? No. Did we quit after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No. And before you respond, I know it wasn't the Germans, its an Animal House reference. And as my reward for not quitting, I have risen 13,000 spots in the last 10 days. Don't give up, folks. Or do. Hell, I really don't care. Just something to think about.

YESTERDAY

It started out well, for me anyway, as Verl got shelled in the first. Of course he recovered to get a decent 16 while Haren blew up somewhat and skidded to a weak 11. Fortunately, Cain had his own issues and the bats were the difference maker. My bats were led by Reynonds (true stud) with 13 and Dunn with 11. The rest were pretty mediocre, but sometimes it only takes a few good bats to make a night. My 38 total from the bats gave me a 49 for the night, moving me back into the top 25 overall and #1299 in the half. Could be worse.

TODAY

Vazquez is the overwhelming favorite today, with about 80% of the take. Johan and Johnson get a little action, but nothing significant. Unless you went against the grain, the bats will be the deciding factor today and, while I hate to jinx myself, I feel pretty good about mine. Ther is alot of power today and hopefully they will come through. Watch the Young pick, as the bum rule may be in effect for Reynolds. Here's the final again...along with the top picks.

C: Mauer*
1B: Morneau*
2B: Utley*
3B: Young (Reynolds*)
SS: Rollins (Tulo*)
LF: Soriano*
CF: Grady (McClutcheon*)
RF: Upton (Abreu*)
DH: Hafner*
PS: Vaz*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Cards/Mets - isolated t-storms
Rocks/Phils - scattered t-storms
Marlins/Nats - scattered
Mariners/Royals - pm t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Cards, Indians, Twins, Marlins, Phills, Rocks, Pirates, Yanks, Bosox, Royals, Rangers

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Cards vs. Niese (1-1 4.50 in 4 starts)
Yanks vs. Rzepczynski (1-2 3.25 in 5)
Royals vs. French (1-2 3.38 in 5)
Chisox vs. O'Sullivan (3-0 3.72 in 5)

Possible Load-ups:
Tigers vs. Guthrie (7-10 5.37)
Jays vs. Mitre (0-1 7.90)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Francouer (1-13 vs. starter)
Renteria (2-17)
G Anderson (2-17)
Sizemore (1-11)
Casilla (0-10)
Doumit (2-11)
Nix (3-17)
Chavez (1-10)
M Izturis (1-10)
Furcal (3-21)
Ausmus (1-16)
Pierre (2-12)
Counsell (9-58, HR)
Cameron (3-26, HR)
Kendall (3-22, HR)
Hall (2-15, HR)

Pitchers:
*At this time the Giants are not set on a starter, although it appears that it will be Joe Martinez.
Hanson (5-2 3.25, 2-1 2.64 road, 1-2 4.05 post break, at SD)
Jackson (7-5 2.64, 1.15 WHIP, 4-1 2.86 home, 1-0 0.00 vs. Bal)
Lannan (7-8 3.41, Low K's, 4-1 1.91 home, 1-2 2.35 post break. 0-1 6.75 vs. Fla)
Happ (7-2 2.97, 1.16 WHIP, 3-1 4.47 home, 0-0 0.00 vs. Col)
Davis (5-10 3.73, 2-4 4.29 road, 1-1 6.28 post break, 1-0 0.00 at Pit)
Harden (7-6 4.50, 115 K in 98 IP, 4-1 2.19 road, 2-0 1.50 post break, 2-0 2.25 and a .118 BAA at Cin)
Braden (8-9 3.89, 1-2 7.40 post break, 1-0 1.64 vs. Tex)
It comes down pretty easily to Harden or Hanson here. Hanson is good, but young. Harden scares me a little, as does the Cincy park. I am going tohope I have the lesser of two evils here and take Hanson. In the end, the Reds bats and the Cubs pen worry me just a little too much.

First:
Morneau (5-11 vs. lefty)
Butler (3-3 vs. lefty rook)
I loke Pujols vs. Neise, but not until he starts to do something. Derek Lee intrigues me a little as well, but as well as Morneau hits lefties (.331, 9HR), I have to stick with him for another day.

Second:
Castillo (2-4)
Sanchez (11-19)
Utley (2-6 vs. lefty)
Hill (1-3)
Lopez (2-6)
I absolutely love Aaron Hill vs. Sergio Mitre. None others seriously considered.

Third:
Wright (7-17, HR)
DeRosa (2-2 vs. lefty rook)
Inge (2-6)
Cantu (2-5, HR vs. good lefty)
Reynolds (1-2)
Figgins (3-7, HR)
Young (4-13 vs. good lefty)
Peralta (4-12, HR vs. lefty)
I really like what DeRosa has done since coming to the Cards, and Reynolds is the obvious pick. I am also tempted to take Arod against the rookie. But, I passed on Reynolds today and don't want to push my luck.

Short:
O Cabrera (3-7 vs. lefty)
Rollins (3-7 vs. lefty)
Drew (2-3)
Bartlett (4-6)
The bad part here is that there are really no obvious choices. The good side is that Jeter kills lefties and is facing a rookie hook tomorrow.

Left:
Crawford (6-8)
Fonzie (2-4)
Rivera (4-10)
Manny (1-3, HR)
Crawford, while good against Penny, is not what I want. Fonzie isn't what I want either and although Holliday is on fire, the Mets park is where fly balls go to die. I feel good about Manny, but for no real valid reason. For some reason I think he goes deep two times.

Center:
Rowand (2-6, HR)
Granderson (4-8, HR)
Victorino (3-6, HR vs. lefty)
Gutierrez (5-8)
Sweeney (6-10)
Byrd (6-16 vs. good lefty)
Hamilton (2-3 vs. good lefty)
If Gutierrez was doing anything at all this week, I would go with him. However, I have to go back to Granderson, based both on the numbers and on the O's staff, or lack there of.

Right:
Winn (15-27)
Mags (4-7)
Cake (5-9 vs. good starter)
Upton (1-2, HR)
Ichiro (2-6)
Abreu (4-11)
Ethier (3-6, HR)
I'm going to have to take Abreu here. I don't want two Dodger bats in an average hitters park and the possibility of rain in Pitt, although it is a slight one, is enough of an issue to prevent me from taking two DBacks (Upton).

DH:
Griffey (4-12)
There is no way I would take Jr, and Papi is the only one I like. But with him, I am way over the cap, amazingly enough. Going back to right, I will drop Abreu in favor of Josh WIllinham, who hits lefties well and, although practically unnoticed, is having a great season.

Catcher:
Shoppach (3-9 vs. lefty)
Mauer (4-7, HR vs. lefty)
Johjima (1-3)
Sizuki (4-7)
I am still in quite a bind financially, so my only option is to go with Shoppach and hope he plays. We'll see, but I don't recommend taking him really. I only will because I have to and I don't want to drop anyone else.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Shop
1B: Morneau
2B: Hill
3B: Reynolds
SS: Jeter
LF: Manny
CF: Granderson
RF: Willingham
DH: Papi
PS: Hanson

STAT CORNER

The Top ERA's at Home (60 IP min.)
Verlander 1.66
Johan 1.69
Greinke 1.79
Lilly 1.86
Lannan 1.91
Lincy 1.92
Cain 1.98
Kershaw 2.06
Wandy 2.12
Haren 2.16

The Top ERA's on the Road (60 IP min.)
Felix 1.96
Lincy 2.45
Jackson 2.47
Carp 2.47
Cain 2.51
Garland 2.59
Haren 2.61
Halladay 2.81
Jurrjens 2.86
Lee 3.03

You don't think home vs. away makes a difference?

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)