Friday, the 7th

Good morning, everyone. You know, it's easy to blame your strategy when things go wrong. But as all of us who have played this game for a while know, there are going to be days when the shit his the fan. It's all a part of the game. If you are having success, or have been having success, I would not suggest changing the way you play because of a bad day or two. Like the old saying goes, "stick with what brung ya here". i just went through a stretch where I climbed just under 14,000 spots in 10 days and had it not been for two bad staff choices early in the half, I would be only 20 points off the second half Leaderboard. Hey, mistakes happen and sometimes things don't go our way. But aside from two lousy days, I feel like I have been pretty much on point and, therefore, will not change a thing.

YESTERDAY

Obviously, Lee was a good pick yesterday, as the Rocks blew their chance to get to him in the first and put put up a strong 32 points. I probably should have had him myself, but I guess I just haven't gotten used to the fact that he doesn't have Kerry MF'n Wood behind him anymore. Sherzer let me and many others down a good bit yesterday, but fortunately the pen came through and, even though it took 12 innings, we escaped with a decent 20 points. My biggest concern is with my bats, who struggled mightily again aside from Reynolds (10) and Hanley (9). they accounted for 2/3 of my offensive points as my 29 total from the bats gave me a 49 for the day. Surprisingly, this dropped me back to #31 overall and #1566 in the half. Damn.

TODAY

With all the quality starters out there today, I really expected to see some diversity in the picks this morning. I seriously considered going with Carp myself in effort to make a move if Lince goes down. However, 94.4% of those that matter took Lincy today, so once again it will all come down to the bats tonight. In other words, most of us can take it easy tonight and not sweat the staff. Get out of the house and do something, as this evening will be less than exciting. Here's the final, along with top picks (*).

C: Mauer*
1B: Pujols*
2B: Hill (Utley*)
3B: ARam (Sandoval*)
SS: Hanley*
LF: Lee*
CF: Wells (Granderson*)
RF: Willingham (Ethier*)
DH: Thome*
PS: Lince*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Indians/Chisox - scattered t-storms and wind
Twins/Tigers - thundershowers
Rays/Mariners - pm showers

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Orioles, Reds, Bosox, Tigers, 'Stros, Brewers, Phills, Marlins, Royals, Cubs, Braves

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Jays vs. Tillman (0-0 6.75 in 2 starts)
Indians vs. Torres (0-0 4.50 in 1)
Mets vs. Latos (3-1 2.66 in 4)

Possible Load-Ups:
'Stros vs. Parra (6-8 6.33)
Cards vs. Morton (2-4 4.03, .611 BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Winn (4-21 vs. starter)
Taveras (2-12)
Figgins (6-36)
M Izturis (2-18)
Mathis (3-16, HR)
Willits (1-11)
C Davis (1-11)
Varitek (1-13, HR)
Konerko (2-16)
Alexei (1-10)
Polanco (2-16)
Cuddyer (4-24)
B Harris (2-13)
Uggla (3-23)
Doumit (2-12)
Cust (1-10)
Beltre (2-15)
J Lopez (2-12)

Pitchers:
Millwood (9-7 3.39, 2-6 4.41 road, 1-0 2.25 post break, 1-1 7.79 at LAA)
Weaver (11-3 3.79, 7-1 2.79 home, 1-0 6.96 post break, 1-1 5.71 vs. Tex)
CC (11-7 3.79, 4-2 4.02 home, 3-1 4.39 post break, 0-1 5.14 vs. Bos)
Verlander (12-5 3.29, 1.17 WHIP, 180 K in 153 IP, 7-0 1.66 home, 2-1 2.90 post break, 0-0 2.84 vs. Min)
Haren (11-6 2.38, 0.88 WHIP, 149 K in 155 IP, 6-1 2.61 road, 2-1 4.32 post break, at Was)
Wainwright (12-7 2.79, 2-2 1.61 post break, 0-0 3.38 at Pitt)
Greinke (10-7 2.36, 1.14 WHIP, 162 K in 152 IP, 6-3 1.79 home, vs. Oak)
Marquis (12-7 3.49, Low K's, 1-1 2.57 post break, 1-0 1.29 vs. ChC)
Shields (6-8 3.75, 2-4 4.41 road, 0-2 5.47 post break, 0-1 1.23 at Sea)
Kershaw (8-6 2.89, 123 K in 124 IP, 3-3 2.06 home, 1-1 1.80 post break, vs. Atl)
It's pretty easy to narrow this down to 4: Verl, Haren, Wainwright, and Greinke. But that's where it gets tough. I will eliminate Haren because of his mediocre last 4 starts and the fact that the Nats are actually playing pretty well right now. The Twins big boys have hit Verlander pretty well, so I'll drop him too. I really like Greinke's home stats as well as Wainwrights chances vs. Pitt. Tough call. I think I'll give Greinke a chance at home. Without OC and Holliday, and with Cust having no success against him, it's a risk I'm willing to take.

First:
Miggy (4-12, HR vs. lefty)
Morneau (9-28, 2HR vs. good starter)
Prince (2-5, HR vs. lefty)
Pujols (2-2)
Helton (7-18, 3HR)
Lee (16-33, 4HR vs. good lefty)
Blalock (11-27, 2HR vs. good starter)
I really like Cabrera here, as he hits over .350 vs. lefties, but I have to stay with Pujols as I feel that the Cards may really roll on Charlie Morton.

Second:
Phillips (3-6 vs. lefty)
Since Zito has actually been pretty decent lately, I will stay away from Phillips. Zobrist looks decent for tomorrow as well, but I think I will stay with Hill against the O's staff and the rookie that is leading them.

Third:
ARod (2-5, HR)
Sandoval (2-3)
Hall (4-9, HR vs. lefty)
Cantu (4-15, 3HR vs. lefty)
ARam (9-21, 2HR vs. good lefty)
I want to take ARod, but I see that he is only hitting .211 at home and traditionally hasn't had too much success against the Sox (compared to his usual numbers). With Reynolds leaving early last night, I won't risk him either. I like Longoria against Snell out west, but have no quality reason behind the pick.

Short:
Renteria (6-14)
Jeter (2-3)
Hanley (9-26 vs. lefty)
Bartlett (1-2)
I'll pass on Hanley vs. a decent pitcher, but I do like Jeter (who contrary to ARod does pretty well against boston) and Rollins. J-Roll has been huge for me lately, so he gets the call.

Left:
Rivera (8-21, HR vs. good starter)
Lee (7-12, HR vs. lefty)
Braun (3-4 vs. lefty)
All of the above are pretty save picks, but I have to have at least one bat against Hampton. Braun is my man.

Center:
Jones (1-3 vs. lefty)
Rowand (3-10)
Byrd (6-17 vs. good starter)
Granderson (4-11 vs. lefty)
None of these stand out at all except for Jones, who is mediocre vs. lefties. I will go back to Grady against whoever that dude is the White Sox are throwing. Of course this means that Granderson will go deep twice, as is what usually happens with me and these two.

Right:
Cake (1-3 vs. lefty)
Abreu (15-50, HR vs. good starter)
Dye (2-6)
Ludwick (2-3)
I really want Ludwick here, but Werth hits well vs. lefties and surprisingly has more power this year. Werth is it.

DH:
Scott (2-3 vs. lefty)
Matsui (3-4)
Ortiz (7-21, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Kubel (5-15 vs. good starter)
Vlad (30-81, 4HR vs. good starter)
Luke Scott actually hits best vs.lefties, but I have togo with Vlad tomorrow. His history vs. Texas is rediculous and his numbers vs. Millwood are equally as good. Plus, the Angels are on fire and Milly has been on a downslide lately.

Catcher:
Napoli (5-11, HR vs. good starter)
Mauer (11-27, HR vs. good starter)
Kendall (14-39 vs. lefty)
Yadi (3-3)
I think I'll go with Napoli again. Mauer looks good, but I don't want him vs. Verl.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Napoli
1B: Pujols
2B: Hill
3B: Longoria
SS: Rollins
LF: Braun
CF: Sizemore
RF: Werth
DH: Vlad
PS: Greinke

STAT CORNER

Boston Red Sox vs. Ney York Yankees. I have often stayed away from bats in these games as they always seem to have pretty good starters going. Yet, every time I look, they are scoring a ton of runs, like last night. So I did some research:

Games Head to Head (Since 2006): 60
Total Runs Scored: 661
Average Runs Per Game: 11.02
Times Over 10 Runs Scored: 35 (58.3%)
Times Over 15 Runs Have Scored: 11 (18.3%)
Times Over 20 Runs Scored: 4 (6.7%)
Times Less than 5 Runs Scored: 5 (8.3%)

Guess I better start taking more bats when these two play...

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)