Friday, August 14, 2009

Friday, the 14th

Good mornig, everyone. I don't have too much to say today, but will give my thoughts on just a couple of things that have happened in the past few days.

On Shane Victorino and the beer: As dangerous as it was, it was also funny as Hell. Drop the charges, Shane. The only thing worse than a bitch is a bitch covered in someone else's beer. Get over it.
On Michael Vick: Who the fuck cares?
On the LLWS: I absolutely love it and I wish all these kids the best of luck.

YESTERDAY

Boys, my three Nats combined for 3 stinking points against Bronson damn Arroyo. This, my friends, is exactly why I don't like to take more than three players from one team on the same day. It happens all the time. Aside from those bums and Venable (who DNP'd), My bats were solid, led by Prince (13), Mauer (12), Tulo (7), and Cameron (6). They combined for 44 total points. Pitching was better than I expected as well, as Lee gave me a srtong 29 while CC assisted most of you that didn't have Lee with an impressive 33. At the end of the day, the scores were rediculously high once again and my total of 73 kept me at #26 overall, but kicked me up to #552 in the half.

TODAY

With all the good pitching that is out there, I really expected to see more diversity then I do. Wainwright is the top pick (very unexpected) with 64%, while Kershaw is second with only 20%. Lester is the only other one who even made a ripple on the charts at 6%. I seriously did not expect to see this today. It unfortunately shows all the signs of TERRIBLE MISTAKE by the voting public. I have a feeling tomorrow's edition will be fueled by my regrets over taking the wrong staff today. Seriously, this just seems wrong. There is absolutely no reason that Wainwright is supposed to be the top pick with all those great starters on the hill today. Usually, when the public thinks it's smarter than the game, they are wrong. Why do you think Vegas always wins? Here is my final again, along with the top picks...

C: McCann (Mauer*)
1B: Pujols*
2B: Phillips (Cano*)
3B: Chipper (Zimm*)
SS: Hanley*
LF: Bay (Holliday*)
CF: Sizemore*
RF: Cuddyer (Ethier*)
DH: Papi (Vlad*)
PS: Wainwright*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Rocks/Marlins scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Chisox, Twins, Giants, Angels, Rays, Jays, Bosox, Dodgers, Yanks

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Angels vs. Matusz (1-1 7.04 in 2 starts)
Reds vs. Martin (1-2 5.91 in 5)
Yanks vs. French (2-2 4.31 in 7)

Possible Load-ups:
Twins vs. Huff (6-6 6.72, .400 BAA)
Rays vs. Tallett (5-6 4.85, .359 BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
K Johnson (3-17 vs. starter)
Escobar (1-13)
Francouer (0-10)
Uribe (8-56, HR)
Huff (2-28)
Mora (4-22)
Wiggy (1-11)
J Guillen (1-10)
C Young (2-13)
Reynolds (1-11)

Pitchers:
Duke (9-10 3.40, Low K's, 0-1 5.11 August, 0-1 3.21, .341 BAA at CHC)
Cain (12-4 2.44, 1.17 WHIP, 6-2 2.51 road, 0-2 5.40 August, 1-0 0.00 at NYM)
Johan (13-8 3.00, 8-2 2.07 home, 3-1 2.70 post break, 1-0 5.14 vs. SF)
Cook (10-4 3.93, 0-1 5.40 August, 1-0 1.50 at FLA)
Lackey (7-5 3.88, 3-1 1.88 post break, 1-0 2.25, .196 at Bal)
Jackson (8-6 2.79, 1.16 WHIP, 5-1 2.79 home, 1-0 4.50 August, 0-1 2.84 vs. KC)
Pineiro (10-9 3.22, 1.12 WHIP, Low K's, 4-4 2.24 home, 1-0 7.50 August, vs. SD)
Davis (7-10 3.62, 2-0 2.57 August, 0-1 8.31 vs. LAD)
For me this pick simply comes down to either Johan or Cain. They are both solid and this should be a Hell of a pitchers duel. For myself, I like Johan at home. Both offensives are very iffy, both pitchers are solid, and I think the home team will win out. Also, while it's not what makes my decision for me,Johan is 1.3 mil cheaper, which will help out my bats.

First:
LaRoche (2-6, 2HR vs. lefty)
Howard (2-3)
Morneau (3-6 vs. lefty)
Garko (7-23, 3HR vs. good lefty)
Miggy (5-6)
Prince (4-9, 2HR)
Pujols (1-1)
Tex (2-3 vs. lefty)
This is a Pujols/Prince pick for me. Morneau is not exploding right now, and I don't like Tex vs. the lefty. I think I will take Prince, after what he did for me yesterday. Tough call, and either should produce.

Second:
Sanchez (4-13 vs. good lefty)
Zo (3-8, HR vs. lefty)
Hill (9-27 vs. lefty)
Both Zo and Hill hit lefties well. just one thing decides this one for me. Hill is on the road, which could result in an extra at bat. It sounds silly, but it's also a legitimate factor.

Third:
Chipper (8-20, 2HR vs. lefty)
Peralta (2-2, HR)
Wright (8-17 vs. good starter)
Longoria (2-6 vs. lefty)
Young (5-10)
I really don't care much for what I see here. I don't take Chipper vs. lefties, so Longoria seems like the best option. I don't feel great about it, though.

Short:
Theriot (12-32, HR vs. good lefty)
Drew (3-9)
Hanley (5-10 vs. good starter)
Bartlett (2-4 vs. lefty)
Scutaro (4-13 vs. lefty)
My brain tells me to take Jeter, who slaughters lefties. But I won't because of two things. Girardi is sitting prople and Jeter always scores low when I take him. if you go with him, and he does well, thank me for laying off. I will take Bartlett, who has been hitting leadoff and is red-hot.

Left:
Fonzie (15-33, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Quentin (2-2, HR vs. lefty)
Braun (3-9)
Crawford (5-12 vs. lefty)
Manny (10-20, HR vs. good lefty)
With manny hitting only .278 vs. lefties, I will pass on him. Soriano can't hit for shit right now, so I have to ignore the numbers there as well. Or do I? I like Braun, who does well on Saturdays if I remember right. Tough Call. Screw it. It's your last chance Fonz.

Center:
Rowand (13-41, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Granderson (2-4)
Upton (3-7 vs. lefty)
Wells (12-30, 3HR vs. lefty)
Kemp (9-18 vs. good lefty)
While I have to pass on Wells, who is hitting .221 vs. lefties, I can't pass on Kemp, who hits .398 against them.

Right:
Bradley (5-10 vs. lefty)
Ethier (6-16, HR vs. good lefty)
Like many before him, Ethier hits under .200 vs. the hooks. I don't like this group at all, but think Cuddyer will suffice vs. Huff. Nevermind, Let's go with Hawpe, who is due, vs. VandenTurd.

DH:
Cust (3-8, HR)
Kubel (2-6, HR vs. lefty)
Scott (2-5, 2HR vs. good starter)
Burrell (3-8, HR vs. lefty)
An Jones (15-45, 6HR)
Andruw better damn well play, because I will take those numbers (vs. Penny) all day long.

Catcher:
McCann (10-27 vs. lefty in day game)
Mauer (4-6, HR vs. lefty in day game)
Benji (12-29, 2HR vs. good lefty in day game)
Olivo (2-4, HR vs. good starter)
Kendall (10-13)
Montero (2-6, HR)
Mauer. No discussion needed.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Mauer
1B: Prince
2B: Hill
3B: Longoria
SS: Bartlett
LF: Soriano
CF: Kemp
RF: Hawpe
DH: Jones
PS: Johan

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

17 comments:

  1. This game is getting harder AND easier....61 points DROPPED me from 48 to 51....so it's HARD to move up but apparently EASIER to pick a good lineup....something as got to give soon. Doesn't seem like there are many "moving days" anymore. There isn't much movement at all.

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  2. 13 years old, you got to be kidding, lock that joker out

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  3. shut up pineapple

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  4. Hi Gomer, how are you today? I have some comments about what you said: “With all the good pitching that is out there, I really expected to see more diversity… Wainwright is the top pick (very unexpected) with 64%, while Kershaw is second with only 20%. Lester is the only other one… It shows all the signs of TERRIBLE MISTAKE ... I have a feeling tomorrow's edition will be fueled by my regrets over taking the wrong staff today… this just seems wrong. There is absolutely no reason that Wainwright is supposed to be the top pick with all those great starters on the hill today”
    Why are you so surprised? Look, It´s true that there is a lot of great starters today but, at least from my point of view, there are also good reasons for not taking any of them but Wainwright. Basically, they face either strong or hot teams (I personally never pick a PS against some teams until a new version of Sandy Koufax is available IoI - maybe I am too conservative but I don't like to take catastrophic risks, no matter how good the reward looks) while Wainwright faces the weakest team in baseball, at home, at a pitchers park, and also backed up by good bats and a good bullpen. Predictions are just that, predictions; anything can happen and Wainwright may end being the wrong pick but St. Louis was the logical pick and not a bad idea at all. So, seriously, why are you so surprised?
    Now, talking about a different matter, I have some comments (questions, actually) about the right way to choose bats. Although I may be wrong, "very good pitchers beat very good batters almost always”. For that reason, I never pick a good bat (regardless who he is) against a very good pitcher, unless I have no other choice but mediocre batters. In other words I'd rather pick a decent batter against a mediocre pitcher that a very good batter against a very good pitcher. But I have seen you picking very good batters against very good pitchers (or at least that’s what I think you do - keep in mind that I can´t see what you think when you choose batters, I only can read the few lines that you write)
    Well, my approach to everything in life is this, “I gather valuable information (like the one you give every day - thanks), process it and then decide by myself”, and I keep doing the same thing until there is an indication that I am doing something wrong. So, every day I read everything you write, process it and then decide by myself. Sometimes we agree, sometimes we don't. Now, since your results are normally better than mine (sometimes way better, I must say), I must be doing something wrong, and I see here a good chance to learn something.
    Do you (or anybody who read this) have any comments or suggestions? I´ll welcome all of them.
    Well Gomer, for the third time, thanks a lot in advance for your advice - and very especially for the one on “how to play a doubleheader”, it was excellent!!
    Take care
    JJ

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  5. jj- alog of ground covered there. on wainwright, only surprised because he is not widely known as a stud yet, even though he is.
    on hitters, i almost never take bats vs. good pitchers - think you're mistaken, but give me an example. lastly, get out of this what you will and leave the rest, thats why its here. sounds like you got the right idea.

    thanks for reading

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  6. Gomer, Thanks again for your reply.
    Probably you are right and I am confused when I say "against good pitchers" Maybe they are not as good as I think they are (you know, sometimes quality is a matter of criteria) Ok here are some examples (maybe not the best ones, though): McCann against Blanton and Ortiz and Bay against Millwood.
    Is it possible that I am overrating Blanton and Millwood and that explains everything?
    JJ

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  7. McCann is 6-10, 2HR vs. a guy with an era over 4 - not what i consider to be scary. Ortiz is 9-25, 3HR vs. millwood who boston owns and has gotten worse as the season has gone on. Bay is there because boston owns millwood and no one else impressed me.

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  8. I come here once in a while but do not follow the picks here, I use my own instinct rather than follow people advices, so far.. so good..I disagree with your Papi pick due to the fact that Papi is washed up, his past stat against Millwood is invalid, no way in the world I am going to pick a guy with a .214 batting average.

    you had influenced some people on the Wainwright pick, and I agree with JJ, Wainwright should not be the most popular pick for the day, there are many other good PS, I went with Kershaw . that game should be a close game either way you are looking at it.

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  9. Gomer, I guess I see your point now
    Those pitchers are simple not as good as I thought
    Tnx
    PS Anonimous: about your comments, I indeed said that Wainwright was the right choice (if you read again you will notice), but I do agree with you that there were better options than Papi (Vlad for instance, but that is a matter of criteria, you know) and also I agree on following our own instincts when we take decisions, but I always appreciate good advice when given with good intentions, which is what we receive from Gomer
    Tnx to both of you
    Take care
    JJ

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  10. Gomer, this is my last post of the day (I swear IoI) You said "My three Nats combined for 3 stinking points against Bronson damn Arroyo. This, my friends, is exactly why I don't like to take more than three players from one team on the same day. It happens all the time". I know is risky but I believe sometimes is a good strategy to load up against one pitcher... as long as we choose the right pitcher, and I think Arroyo wasn´t. Why? Before last night he had 5 quality starts (3 in a row) in his last 6. I used to load up against him some time ago when he was terrible but not anymore. Smoltz was a good one too(I miss him) to load up against. Gio Gonzalez was a good one last year but he is pitching well too.
    Just my thoughts...

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  11. wasn't off millwood, but papi just went deep

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  12. Hey gomer, how are you my friend? dont worry bro you are doing a nice job. I follow you, and push up to #312 2nd half and #83 overall =) i follow you from the break and we go very good!!!

    good luck!!!

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  13. ouch!!! Size and Fonzie sucks!!!! i dont take fonzie i will go with other opcion!!!

    Size and Fonzie MF!!! fu hall of fame jajajaja

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  14. IoI I just saw it... What can I say? IoI

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  15. jajajaja sorry J i dont speak english xD i´m from Venezuela...

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  16. Daniel, I was talking to Gomer about Papi and his HR. And by the way, I´m from Venezuela too. Take care

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  17. hey venezuela, glad to see you climbing the ladder, bro.

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