Saturday, August 15, 2009

Saturday, the 15th

Good morning, everyone. Because of a bit of a long night that seems not so long ago, let's get straight to it today.

YESTERDAY

There were a good few pitching implosions last night, Weaver and Wandy included. Fortunately, most of us avoided them as we had Wainwright (19) and Kershaw (12). I had Wain, and felt pretty decent about it until I got up thismorning. My bats must have been worse than I thought. Ortiz gave me 12 and the rest putted along, totalling out at 30, so I ended the night with a 49. I would have expected this to be OK, but I ended up dropping to #29 overall and #691 in the half. Wow. I really didn't expect that, but oh well.

TODAY

I have not seen the daily summary at this time, but I suspect that Johan and Cain will split the majority of the pitching, while Jackson will get a smaller share of the pot. If I am correct, the tilt between the Giants and the Mets will be the game of the day. I am a little nervous that the Giants got shutout last night, but who knows? maybe it can happen again, It did to the Red Sox last weekend, why not the Giants? Here's my final again. I will post the daily leaders, if time premits this afternoon.

OK, the summary is up and about 75% took the Mets, with Cain a very distand second.

C: Mauer*
1B: Prince*
2B: Hill*
3B: Longoria*
SS: Bartlett (Hanley*)
LF: Soriano (Braun*)
CF: Kemp (Hamilton*)
RF: Hawpe (Ethier*)
DH: Jones (Vlad*)
PS: Johan*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Phils/Braves scattered t-storms
Rocks/Marlins isolated t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Reds, Mets, Rays, Twins, Cards, A's, DBacks, Marlins, Braves

Bold
Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Orioles vs. O'Sullivan (3-1 5.12 in 7 starts)
Rays vs. Rzepczynski (1-3 4.38 in 7)
Rangers vs. Tazawa (1-1 4.05 in 2)
Yankees vs. Fister (0-0 0.00 in 1)

Possible Load-ups:
Tigers vs. Davies (4-8 6.11, .333 BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Olivo (0-11 vs. starter)
Taveras (1-10)
Vlad (1-14)
Wells (3-17)
Prince (4-31)
Cuddyer (2-11)
Kubel (2-11)
Peralta (1-12)
Eckstein (2-18)
Reynolds (2-13)
Rollins (10-53)
Stairs (2-24)
Werth (2-16)
Victorino (2-12)

Pitchers:
Lannan (8-9 3.58, Low K's, 3-8 5.92 road, 1-1 5.91 August, 0-0 1.50 at Cin)
Garza (7-8 3.80, 3-4 4.43 road, 0-0 5.23 August, 2-0 1.69 vs. Tor)
Oz (6-4 3.87, 0-0 10.80 August, 0-0 4.26 at Mil)
Laffey (6-3 3.25, 2-3 4.95 road, 2-0 0.00 August, 2-0 1.26 at Min)
Harden (7-7 4.30, 130 K's in 111 IP, 3-5 6.31 home, 2-1 1.95 post break, 1-0 1.29 vs. Pit)
Joba (8-2 3.85, 5-0 2.78 road, 1-0 6.55 August, 0-0 5.06 at Sea)
Wolf (6-6 3.43, 1.17 WHIP, 5-4 2.85 road, 1-0 4.15 at Zona)
Happ (8-2 2.75, 1.16 WHIP, 1-0 1.20 August, 0-0 4.00 at Atl)
Vazquez 10-7 2.90, 171 K's in155 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 3-5 2.82 home, 2-0 1.80 August, 1-0 3.32 vs. Phi)
Harden, Joba, Happ and Vazquez are the only ones I can even gove consideration to here. I won't take Joba on the road, so that gets me down to three. I also don't like to ever go against the Phills if I can avoid it and Happ faces better bats than Harden. He's also on the road. Harden is the call.

First:
Miggy (7-23, 3HR)
Berkman (10-27)
Morneau (5-15 vs. good lefty)
AGonz (4-15)
Helton (2-3)
I'll go with Pujols. Richard has never faced him and that has to be intimidating. I eliminated Morneau because of Laffey's success vs.the Twins. Gonzo would have been my second choice, but since he has no support around him, the pick is easy.

Second:
Uggla (4-8 vs. lefty)
Phillips (4-8 vs. good lefty)
Roberts (2-3 vs. rookie)
Utley (6-18, HR vs. good starter)
Pedroia (5-8)
Roberts and Cano are the only ones I am looking at. Because of his power advantage, I will take Robbie against the rook with the funny name.

Third:
Wright (3-7 vs. lefty)
Sandoval (2-3)
Figgins (4-13)
Blake (3-4, HR)
Cantu (2-4, HR vs. lefty)
There is absolutely nothing I like here. I think I'll take Gordon Beckham. You say why. I say why not.

Short:
O Cabrera (6-11 vs. good lefty)
A Cabrera (6-16)
Wilson (2-2 vs. good starter)
Tulo (3-6, HR)
Hanley (4-9 vs. lefty)
Obviously, Hanley is the pick here.

Left:
Braun (5-11, 2HR vs. good starter)
Ibanez (7-19, 4HR vs. good starter)
Both of these two have impressive numbers,but they also face pretty good pitching. I like Dunn and Holliday more, but will take Holliday as he is possibly the hottest bat in the league since the break.

Center:
Granderson (5-14, 2HR)
Ad Jones (3-3 vs. rookie)
Ellsbury (2-5)
Span (2-5 vs. good lefty)
Sizemore (6-19)
I hate to do it, but give me Granderson again. Last chance, pal. You better not let me down again.

Right:
Mags (7-19)
J Guillen (5-11)
Hart (6-18, HR vs. good starter)
Pence (10-22, HR)
Ichiro (3-6 vs. good starter)
Pence has actually been hitting pretty well lately. The numbers are good enough for me to give him another chance. Nothing else impresses anyway.

DH:
Ortiz (4-8)
Since I don't feel like digging for a hidden jewel, Papi will work.

Catcher:
Laird (5-12, HR)
Soto (2-3)
Kendall (17-44 vs. good starter)
Mauer (5-10, HR vs. good lefty)
Shop (3-5, HR)
You just have to go with mauer here. It would be senseless not to. VMart would be the only other possible option.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Mauer
1B: Pujols
2B: Cano
3B: Beckham
SS: Hanley
LF: Holliday
CF: Granderson
RF: Pence
DH: Papi
PS: Harden

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Friday, August 14, 2009

Friday, the 14th

Good mornig, everyone. I don't have too much to say today, but will give my thoughts on just a couple of things that have happened in the past few days.

On Shane Victorino and the beer: As dangerous as it was, it was also funny as Hell. Drop the charges, Shane. The only thing worse than a bitch is a bitch covered in someone else's beer. Get over it.
On Michael Vick: Who the fuck cares?
On the LLWS: I absolutely love it and I wish all these kids the best of luck.

YESTERDAY

Boys, my three Nats combined for 3 stinking points against Bronson damn Arroyo. This, my friends, is exactly why I don't like to take more than three players from one team on the same day. It happens all the time. Aside from those bums and Venable (who DNP'd), My bats were solid, led by Prince (13), Mauer (12), Tulo (7), and Cameron (6). They combined for 44 total points. Pitching was better than I expected as well, as Lee gave me a srtong 29 while CC assisted most of you that didn't have Lee with an impressive 33. At the end of the day, the scores were rediculously high once again and my total of 73 kept me at #26 overall, but kicked me up to #552 in the half.

TODAY

With all the good pitching that is out there, I really expected to see more diversity then I do. Wainwright is the top pick (very unexpected) with 64%, while Kershaw is second with only 20%. Lester is the only other one who even made a ripple on the charts at 6%. I seriously did not expect to see this today. It unfortunately shows all the signs of TERRIBLE MISTAKE by the voting public. I have a feeling tomorrow's edition will be fueled by my regrets over taking the wrong staff today. Seriously, this just seems wrong. There is absolutely no reason that Wainwright is supposed to be the top pick with all those great starters on the hill today. Usually, when the public thinks it's smarter than the game, they are wrong. Why do you think Vegas always wins? Here is my final again, along with the top picks...

C: McCann (Mauer*)
1B: Pujols*
2B: Phillips (Cano*)
3B: Chipper (Zimm*)
SS: Hanley*
LF: Bay (Holliday*)
CF: Sizemore*
RF: Cuddyer (Ethier*)
DH: Papi (Vlad*)
PS: Wainwright*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Rocks/Marlins scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Chisox, Twins, Giants, Angels, Rays, Jays, Bosox, Dodgers, Yanks

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Angels vs. Matusz (1-1 7.04 in 2 starts)
Reds vs. Martin (1-2 5.91 in 5)
Yanks vs. French (2-2 4.31 in 7)

Possible Load-ups:
Twins vs. Huff (6-6 6.72, .400 BAA)
Rays vs. Tallett (5-6 4.85, .359 BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
K Johnson (3-17 vs. starter)
Escobar (1-13)
Francouer (0-10)
Uribe (8-56, HR)
Huff (2-28)
Mora (4-22)
Wiggy (1-11)
J Guillen (1-10)
C Young (2-13)
Reynolds (1-11)

Pitchers:
Duke (9-10 3.40, Low K's, 0-1 5.11 August, 0-1 3.21, .341 BAA at CHC)
Cain (12-4 2.44, 1.17 WHIP, 6-2 2.51 road, 0-2 5.40 August, 1-0 0.00 at NYM)
Johan (13-8 3.00, 8-2 2.07 home, 3-1 2.70 post break, 1-0 5.14 vs. SF)
Cook (10-4 3.93, 0-1 5.40 August, 1-0 1.50 at FLA)
Lackey (7-5 3.88, 3-1 1.88 post break, 1-0 2.25, .196 at Bal)
Jackson (8-6 2.79, 1.16 WHIP, 5-1 2.79 home, 1-0 4.50 August, 0-1 2.84 vs. KC)
Pineiro (10-9 3.22, 1.12 WHIP, Low K's, 4-4 2.24 home, 1-0 7.50 August, vs. SD)
Davis (7-10 3.62, 2-0 2.57 August, 0-1 8.31 vs. LAD)
For me this pick simply comes down to either Johan or Cain. They are both solid and this should be a Hell of a pitchers duel. For myself, I like Johan at home. Both offensives are very iffy, both pitchers are solid, and I think the home team will win out. Also, while it's not what makes my decision for me,Johan is 1.3 mil cheaper, which will help out my bats.

First:
LaRoche (2-6, 2HR vs. lefty)
Howard (2-3)
Morneau (3-6 vs. lefty)
Garko (7-23, 3HR vs. good lefty)
Miggy (5-6)
Prince (4-9, 2HR)
Pujols (1-1)
Tex (2-3 vs. lefty)
This is a Pujols/Prince pick for me. Morneau is not exploding right now, and I don't like Tex vs. the lefty. I think I will take Prince, after what he did for me yesterday. Tough call, and either should produce.

Second:
Sanchez (4-13 vs. good lefty)
Zo (3-8, HR vs. lefty)
Hill (9-27 vs. lefty)
Both Zo and Hill hit lefties well. just one thing decides this one for me. Hill is on the road, which could result in an extra at bat. It sounds silly, but it's also a legitimate factor.

Third:
Chipper (8-20, 2HR vs. lefty)
Peralta (2-2, HR)
Wright (8-17 vs. good starter)
Longoria (2-6 vs. lefty)
Young (5-10)
I really don't care much for what I see here. I don't take Chipper vs. lefties, so Longoria seems like the best option. I don't feel great about it, though.

Short:
Theriot (12-32, HR vs. good lefty)
Drew (3-9)
Hanley (5-10 vs. good starter)
Bartlett (2-4 vs. lefty)
Scutaro (4-13 vs. lefty)
My brain tells me to take Jeter, who slaughters lefties. But I won't because of two things. Girardi is sitting prople and Jeter always scores low when I take him. if you go with him, and he does well, thank me for laying off. I will take Bartlett, who has been hitting leadoff and is red-hot.

Left:
Fonzie (15-33, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Quentin (2-2, HR vs. lefty)
Braun (3-9)
Crawford (5-12 vs. lefty)
Manny (10-20, HR vs. good lefty)
With manny hitting only .278 vs. lefties, I will pass on him. Soriano can't hit for shit right now, so I have to ignore the numbers there as well. Or do I? I like Braun, who does well on Saturdays if I remember right. Tough Call. Screw it. It's your last chance Fonz.

Center:
Rowand (13-41, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Granderson (2-4)
Upton (3-7 vs. lefty)
Wells (12-30, 3HR vs. lefty)
Kemp (9-18 vs. good lefty)
While I have to pass on Wells, who is hitting .221 vs. lefties, I can't pass on Kemp, who hits .398 against them.

Right:
Bradley (5-10 vs. lefty)
Ethier (6-16, HR vs. good lefty)
Like many before him, Ethier hits under .200 vs. the hooks. I don't like this group at all, but think Cuddyer will suffice vs. Huff. Nevermind, Let's go with Hawpe, who is due, vs. VandenTurd.

DH:
Cust (3-8, HR)
Kubel (2-6, HR vs. lefty)
Scott (2-5, 2HR vs. good starter)
Burrell (3-8, HR vs. lefty)
An Jones (15-45, 6HR)
Andruw better damn well play, because I will take those numbers (vs. Penny) all day long.

Catcher:
McCann (10-27 vs. lefty in day game)
Mauer (4-6, HR vs. lefty in day game)
Benji (12-29, 2HR vs. good lefty in day game)
Olivo (2-4, HR vs. good starter)
Kendall (10-13)
Montero (2-6, HR)
Mauer. No discussion needed.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Mauer
1B: Prince
2B: Hill
3B: Longoria
SS: Bartlett
LF: Soriano
CF: Kemp
RF: Hawpe
DH: Jones
PS: Johan

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Thursday, the 13th

Good morning, everyone. It's funny to me that as much as we bitch and moan about how poor pitching is and then we have a day like tomorrow where more than half of the starters have ERA's under 4.00. I try to keep my list to no more than ten starters, but really had trouble deciding which ones today, as you will see below. I think the reality is that pitching is actually pretty good. The problem is that it has become overly trendy to have specialty pitchers and "set up men" and there is an overemphasis on closers in the game today. If the managers would just let these guys who can pitch do what they are good at and not worry so damn much about pitch count and set-up men, we would all find ERA's and runs will drop dramatically. That's just my two cents.

YESTERDAY

What a day for pitching! I felt really good about the 35 Lince and company gave me until I saw this morning that King Felix got 47 in a 14 inning marathon. Damn! Even if you had Carp, you came away with a pretty decent 27. Days like that are pretty hard to come by. I certainly hope you all benefitted from it. My bats were exceptional as well last night led by Rollins (12), Pujols (8), Hamilton (8), and Longoria (6). They gave me 46 more and my total of 81 puts me at #26 overall and a second half high of #612. Wow! What a night!

TODAY

Lee and CC are clearly the top pitchers with Lee gathering 52% of the play, while CC gets another 37%. I really don't know what to expect here, except for less than we all had last night. We shall see. The bats appear to be all over the place today, which has been pretty rare lately. I think the values are just now beginning to rise to the point where we are starting to see some diversity instead of everyone loading up with all-stars. It's about damn time, too. Here's my final again, along with the top picks...

C: Mauer*
1B: Prince (Morneau*)
2B: Phillips (Utley*)
3B: Zimm*
SS: Tulo (Hanley*)
LF: Dunn (Braun*)
CF: Cameron (Ross*)
RF: Willingham (Cuddyer*)
DH: Venable*
PS: Lee*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Rocks/Nats isolated t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Royals, Mets, Brewers, Rangers, DBacks

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Angels vs. Tillman (0-0 5.19 in 3 starts)
Cards vs. Latos (4-1 2.45 in 5)

Possible Load-ups:
(Angels vs. Tillman (see above)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Mags (5-35 vs. starter)
Granderson (4-31, HR)
Buck (3-17)
Teahen (3-17)
J Guillen (2-16)
Gordon (2-13)
Bard (1-10)
Rollins (3-17)
Utley (3-16, HR)
Zo (2-15)
Burrell (1-10)
Barajas (3-18)
F Lopez (2-16)
Pedroia (1-12)
Martin (3-16)
Hudson (2-12)

Pitchers: (Leaving out Gallardo, Zito, Shields, Millwood, Weaver, and Jurrjens)
Wells (8-5 3.01, 1.18 WHIP, 1-1 4.26 August, 1-0 1.29 vs. Pitt)
Kershaw (8-6 2.73, 133 K in 131 IP, 1-1 1.41 post break, at Zona)
Greinke (11-7 2.43, 1.15 WHIP, 167 K in 159 IP, 1-1 6.75 August, 2-1 1.50 at Det)
Washburn (8-7 3.12, 1.12 WHIP, 0-1 8.74 August, 0-1 1.29, .301 BAA vs. KC)
Wandy (11-6 2.51, 3-0 0.87 post break, 2-0 0.64 at Mil)
Johnson (11-2 2.92, 1.10 WHIP, 5-1 2.18 home, 1-0 1.13 vs. Col)
Haren (11-7 2.57, 0.89 WHIP, 153 K in 161 IP, 5-5 2.17 home, 1-1 6.92 August, 0-1 2.08 vs. LAD)
Halladay (12-5 2.73, 1.08 WHIP, 4-2 2.81 road, 2-2 2.36 post break, 0-2 2.46 at TAM)
Lester (9-7 3.67, 165 k in 147 IP, 0-0 1.39 August, 1-0 1.00, .188 BAA at Tex)
Wainwright (13-7 2.73, 4-6 2.18 home, 1-1 1.98 August, vs. SD)
So, Wells, Kershaw, Wandy, Johnson, Lester, or Wainwright? This is just plain rediculous. I think I will drop Wandy simply because of the Brewers bats. Wells goes becausehe has struggled this month. With this many to choose from, AL teams on the road have to go, eliminating Lester. Kershaw ison the road, so he has to go. The Rocks are better than the Pads, so I have to go with Wainwright and hope it works out. Damn, that was painful.

First:
Miggy (6-18 vs. good starter)
Tatis (3-5 vs. lefty)
Johnson (2-2)
Nothing stands out here, so I'll take Pujols at home. He's probably the safest pick, although I did give some consideration to Morneau.

Second:
Polanco (13-35, HR vs. good starter)
Prado (2-3, HR)
Hill (6-19, HR vs. good starter)
Again, none of this impresses me. Give me Phillips again over that no-name dude for the Nats.

Third:
Wright (3-8 vs. lefty)
Young (7-14 vs. good lefty)
Lowell (20-59, 2HR vs. good starter)
Reynolds (2-5 vs. good lefty)
Blake (10-29 vs. good starter)
Cantu (2-4)
Zimm (2-5)
With Youk out, I am fairly confident that Lowell will play. I really like the Sox in this one, so let's do it. I may revisit taking Chipper later, though.

Short:
Guzman (3-7)
Hanley (3-4, HR)
Tulo (2-4 vs. good starter)
Escobar (4-8, HR)
Bartlett (7-22 vs. good starter)
Hanley is the first clear pick I have seen today.

Left:
Sheff (8-21, 2HR vs. lefty)
Crawford (23-74, 2HR vs. good starter)
Blalock (3-6 vs. good lefty)
Bay 4-13 vs. good starter)
Manny (10-20,2HR vs. good starter)
I like Holliday, but I really think Millwood is going to get toasted tomorrow. Let's go with Bay.

Center:
McClutcheon (2-3 vs. good starter)
Morgan (3-6)
Bourn (3-8 vs. good starter)
Sizemore (12-34)
Kemp (4-13, HR vs. good starter)
Again, it's a tough call. I'm thinking Grady, mainly because of the cheap salary.

Right:
Willingham (3-9, HR)
Hawpe (2-3 vs. good starter)
Hart (11-27 vs. good lefty)
Pence (4-13 vs. good starter)
Drew (9-28, HR vs. good starter)
Ethier (9-20, 2HR vs. good starter)
I like Willingham, but think I will go with Cuddyer instead. There is no good reason behind this, other than the fact that he is hitting well and very few at this position are.

DH:
Lind (5-17, 2HR vs. good starter)
Ortiz (9-25, 3HR vs. good starter)
Hafner (11-24, 4HR)
I have to take Papi on this one, the numbers are just too impressive to let pass.

Catcher:
Laird (6-14 vs. good starter)
McCann (6-10, 2HR)
Varitek (12-29 vs. good starter)
MVart (6-14 vs. good starter)
Just like Papi, the numbers on NcCann are too good to pass up. By the same token, I think Chipper will get some good pitches tomorrow because of these numbers. I will drop Lowell for Chip.

FINAL LINEUP (with 2.7 left over)

C: McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Phillips
3B: Chipper
SS: Hanley
LF: Bay
CF: Grady
RF: Cuddyer
DH: Papi
PS: Wainwright

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Wednesday, the 12th

Good morning, everyone. I hope you all had the chance to see the "fight" in the Tigers/Sox game last night. If so, you saw Rick Porcello plunk Kevin Youkilis which was immediately followed by the charge to the mound. Youk decided to throw his helmet at the pitcher, which did nothing at all, and then, instead of knocking his lights out, tries to go low and wrap him up. Porcello, the youngster that he is, manages to actually toss the much bigger Youk to the ground like a rag doll, pretty much landing on top of him. Seconds later, Porcello emerges unscathed from the pile. What the Hell was that all about. Be a man, Youk, and throw a damn punch for Pete's sake. Note to all: If you really want to look like a puss, start and finish a fight without even throwing a punch. What a joke. It reminded me of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JrN3EgJVXg
At least the one-legged chest bump would have been remotely entertaining!

YESTERDAY

What do Hanson, Wolf, Happ, Harden, and Sherzer have in common? They all put up between 25 and 33 fantasy points last night. Who could have predicted that? I'm not surprised so much that it happened, but from all 5 of them? Needless to say, pitching was pretty much a wash. On top of the 27 Wolf gave me, my bats accounted for a relatively weak 26, led by Hanley (8), Pujols (7), and Granderson (7). The rest of them were turds. My total of 53 left me pretty much steady at #27 overall and #846 in the half.

TODAY

As expected, Lincy is once again the top pitcher taken at 50%, followed by Carp at 35%. The head-to-head numbers said that Carp would be the man, but the overall dominance by Lince won out in the end. I suspect that they will put up similar numbers, unless you believe in the theory that owning a team three times in a row is pretty much impossible (Carp has dominated the Reds both times thus far). The bats, however, are pretty spread out. There are not too many overwhelmingly dominant choices it seems. Here is my final again, along with the top picks...

C: McCann (Mauer*)
1B: Pujols*
2B: Zo (Utley*)
3B: Longoria (Reynolds*)
SS: Rollins (Hanley*)
LF: Braun (Holliday*)
CF: Hamilton*
RF: Luddy*
DH: Thome*
PS: Lince*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Tigers/Bosox scattered t-storms
'Stros/Marlins scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Rangers, Padres, Cubs, Rocks, Marlins, 'Stros, Mariners

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Brewers vs. Carillo (MLB Debut)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Crede (3-18 vs. starter)
B Harris (2-13)
Span (2-13)
D Young (2-23)
Olivo (1-10, HR)
Hawpe (1-12)
Spilborghs (2-11)
Ad LaRoche (2-13)
Wilson (2-15)
Beltre (0-10)

Pitchers:
Verlander (12-6 3.45, 1.19 WHIP, 186 K in 159 IP, 5-5 4.68 road, 0-1 6.43 August, .350 BAA at Bos)
Lee (9-9 2.95, 1-0 1.29 August, 0-0 3.85 at CHC)
Marquis (12-8 3.65, 5-4 4.12 home, 0-1 5.54 August, 1-0 3.12 vs. Pitt)
CC (12-7 3.76, 1.17 WHIP, 0-1 9.53 at Sea)
OK, first of all, I can't even consider Verlander with the success the Sox have had against him. Marquis is just not a guy I would feel comfortable with either. This leaves me with CC and Lee. Two things sway me here. One is that CC always seems undependable to me, proven by the results I have seen when I take him. The other is that ARam is unlikely to play vs. Lee. Take a bat away from the Cubs and they just don't have that many left. It's Lee for me (as long as Kerry MF'n Wood is no where near Chicago tomorrow).

First:
Morneau (10-33, 2HR)
Butler (4-9)
Youk (4-10, 2HR vs. good starter) *Youk began his 5 game suspension tonight!*
AGonz (1-3 vs. lefty)
Lee (2-3, HR vs. good lefty)
Votto (2-4, HR)
Votto is cold and Gonzo hits under.200 vs. lefties. Since the Morneau numbers vs. Meche are not overwhelming, I think I will chance Prince vs. the Padres rookie.

Second:
Callaspo (5-8, HR)
Polanco (3-3)
Utley (4-6)
Barmes (6-11, HR vs. lefty)
Phillips (3-5)
It's been a while since I had Brandon Phillips. I have feasted off of him for years and expect good numbers from him again here at home.

Third:
Peralta (3-6, HR)
Young (2-3, HR)
Lowell (3-7 vs. good starter)
Atkins (7-14 vs. lefty)
Zimm (3-9)
There are a few seemingly safe picks here including Zimmerman, Young, and ARod. Due to ARod's lack of dependability and the way the Nats have been hitting, I will be taking Zimm. I also like him playing in the 'Natti.

Short:
As Cabrera (3-4)
O Cabrera (10-28, HR)
Rollins (9-30)
Tulo (5-8, HR vs. lefty)
Hanley (2-6 vs. lefty)
For starters, Hanley only has one homer vs. lefties this season, so he's out. Between Rollins and Tulo, I like Tulo's matchup better, but barely. This is the toughest call of the night.

Left:
Blalock (1-2)
DeJesus (4-12)
The only ones I like here are Dunn and Braun. I'm going with Dunn in his old park, especially against Arroyo, who has the tendencies to serve up a few. The Big Donkey is 0-2 against Bronson lifetime.

Center:
Sizemore (2-5, HR)
Fowler (2-5 vs. lefty)
McClutcheon (2-5 vs. good starter)
Morgan (2-4)
Guttierez (3-3, HR vs. good lefty)
It looks as if I am going to be stuck with either Granderson or Sizemore again. But fudge that! Just to avoid being let down by the one I take while watching the other go off, I am going to go with Cameron vs. the Pads' rookie. I'm practically done with the other two.

Right:
Cuddyer (7-13, HR)
Guillen (5-10, HR)
Mags (2-3)
Stairs (4-7, 3HR)
Werth (2-4)
Ichiro (17-41, 3HR vs. good lefty)
Willingham (2-3)
Stuck between Willingham and Cuddyer, the tie breaker is batting average. Will's is much better and he is also better onthe road than at home. Holy shit! I have three Nats tomorrow. This can't be good.

DH:
Ortiz (3-7, HR vs. good starter)
Venable (1-3 vs. lefty)
Turd city tomorrow. I have to go with Will Venable. Hell, I've been wanting to take him anyway and this is the best chance I have had.

Catcher:
Shop (3-8)
Mauer (5-17, HR)
Ianetta (3-6, HR vs. lefty)
Doumit (5-17, HR vs. good starter)
Johjima (5-8 vs. good lefty)
Easy pick. Mauer.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Mauer
1B: Prince
2B: Phillips
3B: Zimmerman
SS: Tulo
LF: Dunn
CF: Cameron
RF: Willingham
DH: Venable
PS: Lee

The Top Post All-Star Break Batting Averages:
Holliday .443
C Gonzalez .435
E Velez .397
Morgan .394
Reynolds .383
Coghlan .380
Guzman .373
Kendrick .373
Zimmerman .371
O Cabrera .369

Home Run Leaders Since the All-Star Break:
Reynolds 12
Morales 10
Zimm 10
DeRosa 8
Young 8
Teix 8
8 with 7

RBI Leaders Since the All-Star Break:
Holliday 27
Morales 26
Kemp 25
Tulo 24
Zimm 24
Dunn 22
Peralta 22
5 with 21

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tuesday, the 11th

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to day two of the poor pitching marathon. Just as there was nothing to choose from tomorrow, there is nothing to choose from today. Good damn luck. Lets move on.

YESTERDAY

I believe I predicted yesterday that none of the top staffs would go for more than 20. Well, as luck would have it, Kuroda was the head of the class with an award winning 19. Had it not been for Chad "How did I make it to the majors" Qualls, Davis would have been right there as well. With Floyd blowing up, as well, there will be some movement today once ESPN gets out of bed and updates the rankings. I'll take my 13 from Davis without too much complaint, though. My bats were less than exciting, but not too bad. Led by Hill (7) and Crarford (6), they gave me 32 more and I ended up with a respectable 45. On a day like that, I'll be happy with a 45.

OK, ESPN has finally updated the rankings. I am still #26 overall, but moved up to #813 in the second half. With Davis as my starter, I'll take it.

TODAY

Pitching, what there is of it, is spread far and wide again today. Hanson is the top pick with 31%. Wolf (17%), Happ (15%), and Sherzer 12%. Again, with none of these guys being what I would consider to be aces, it will surely be an nailbiter tonight. Here is my final again, along with the top picks...

C: Martin (Mauer*)
1B: Pujols*
2B: Zobrist*
3B: Reynolds*
SS: Hanley*
LF: Crawford (Holliday*)
CF: Granderson*
RF: Hawpe*
DH: Kubel*
PS: Wolf (Hanson*)

TOMORROW

Weather:
Jays/Yanks pm t-storms
A's/O's pm t-storms
Pirates/Rocks isolated t-storms
Nats/Braves scattered t-storms
Tigers/Bosox isolated t-storms
'Stros/Marlins scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Yanks, DBacks, Twins, Royals, Mariners

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Rays vs. Bell (Debut)
Marlins vs. Norris (2-0 1.69 in 2 starts)

Possible Load-ups:
DBacks vs. Perez (2-3 6.38)
Rangers vs. Carmona (2-6 6.66)
Phills vs. Samardzija (1-1 6.29)
Cards vs. Bailey (2-3 7.11)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Millar (4-21 vs. starter)
Overbay (1-15)
Snyder (1-10)
Loney (2-12)
Ethier (2-11)
Bard (4-24, HR)
Dunn (2-19)
Kearns (2-17, HR)
Polanco (4-21)
Granderson (2-11)
F Lopez (4-27)
Soriano (7-43)
Betancourt (1-14)
Taveras (5-26)
Beltre (2-18)
Wilson (2-13)

Pitchers:
*Please be advised that, as of right now, the Dodgers are not settled on a starter*
Romero (10-5 3.66, 3-2 5.65 post break, 1-0 4.26 at NYY)
Burnett (10-5 3.67, 0-1 5.11 August, 1-1 4.30 vs. Tor)
Niemann (10-5 3.73, 6-3 4.26 road, 0-0 9.82 at LAA)
Lince (12-3 2.20, 198 K in 163 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 7-1 1.97 home, 1-0 1.20 August, 1-0 4.15 vs. LAD)
Hunter (4-2 2.63, 1.19 WHIP, 1-0 1.39 road, 1-1 4.50 August, at Cle)
Beckett (13-4 3.12, 1.13 WHIP, 139 K in 150 IP, 7-0 2.58 home, 1-0 0.00 August, 1-0 0.00 and .189 BAA vs. Det)
Carp (11-3 2.26, 0.97 WHIP, 6-1 1.62 home, 2-0 2.65 August, 2-0 1.13 and .189 BAA vs. Cin)
Jimenez (9-9 3.65, 2-0 1.84 August, 0-0 1.50 vs. Pit)
Buehrle (11-6 3.89, 1.18 WHIP, 4-3 4.81 road, 0-2 9.00 August, at Sea)
Felix (12-8 2.84, 1.19 WHIP, 148 K in 158 IP, 4-3 4.05 home, 3-1 4.05 post break, 1-0 0.00 vs. CWS)
There are certainly a number of safe picks tomorrow, but it's just as difficult to pick one as it has been the last two days. Lince and Carp are my favorites of this group and I, as usual will have Lince. His strikeouts are unmatched and he traditionally does well coming off a poor outing. Carp has owned the Reds, but that will eventually come to an end. Either one should be a safe pick.

First:
LaRoche (2-3, HR)
Youk (3-5, 2HR)
Pujols (1-5, HR)
Branyan (1-3, HR vs. good lefty)
Morneau (1-4, HR vs. lefty)
I like both Pujols and Morneau here. Justin owns Bannister for sure, but Fat Al should wear out Bailey too. I think I will stay with Pujols. He is over half a mil cheaper and I will need to save some dough because of the Lincy pick.

Second:
Castillo (7-16)
Hudson (7-15 vs. good starter)
Pedroia (1-3)
My gut tells me to go with Utley vs. Samar%#*a, but he is hitting poorly. For now, I will stay with Zobrist in Anaheim. I may come back to this later, though.

Third:
Figgins (2-3 vs. good starter)
Reynolds (0-4 vs. lefty)
Young (4-12)
Lowell (2-6)
DeRosa (1-3, HR)
Since Reynolds is average vs. lefties, I will drop him. Young is intriguing, but lacks the power I want. To make matters worse, DeRosa is banged up. I guess I will take Longoria, but mainly because there isn't much to choose from.

Short:
Scutaro (5-16 vs. good starter)
Guzman (11-29)
Tejada (4-9)
Alexei (3-6 vs. good starter)
Tulo and Rollins will be among the top picks, and Bartlett is there if you want to save cash. I will go with J-Roll. He is 0-2 vs. ole what's his name and has done me well this half.

Left:
Sheff (6-16)
Pierre (5-11 vs. good starter)
Murphy (2-4)
Braun (3-10, HR)
Holliday (1-2)
I'll be going with Braun here. I haven't had him in a while and he is as due to go deep as I am to take him. Holliday is a thought, but not much of one for me.

Center:
A Jones (2-3)
Morgan (5-9)
Hamilton (4-7)
Ellsbury (2-6)
Gutierrez (7-15, 2HR vs. good lefty)
I think I'll take a shot with Josh Hamilton tomorrow. Struggling or not, he is a steal at 3.9 mil and, facing Carmona, is a good matchup.

Right:
Francouer (5-8, HR)
Cruz (3-6, 2HR)
Pence (2-5, 2HR)
Werth (1-1, HR)
Luddy (3-8, HR)
Ichiro (17-39 vs. good lefty)
If Werth were doing anything at all right now, I'd take him. Instead, it's Luddy vs. Homer.

DH:
Ortiz (2-6)
Thome (5-8, 3HR vs. good starter)
I really don't like bats vs. good starters, but Thome has absolutely owned Felix.

Catcher:
Salty (3-6)
Olivo (4-10, HR vs. lefty)
Yadi (2-5)
Doumit (1-3 vs. good starter)
Since VMart is 1-9 vs. Gallaragga, I will go with McCann at home. I have no good reason for this, but think it will work out just fine.

FINAL LINEUP

C: McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Zo
3B: Longoria
SS: Rollins
LF: Braun
CF: Hamilton
RF: Luddy
DH: Thome
PS: Lince

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Monday, August 10, 2009

Monday, the 10th

Good morning, everyone. Are you superstitious? All weekend long I struggled and I finally realized why. I found my mechanical pencil in my jeans pocket while doing laundry yesterday morning, then proceeded to make my notes with it. Sure enough, yesterday was a good day. On Friday and Saturday, I used some God-awful pen and got punked. All I needed was my pencil. It reminds me of a Bama-Penn State game from the late 80's. Bama got behind early. I laid down on the floor and put my feet up on the couch and we started to come back. I stayed that way the whole game. After finally taking the lead, Penn State moved down the field, getting all the way to the two yard line with seconds remaining. Only down by a point, the winning field goal was inevitable. I Turned the tv off in disgust. But then, I figured I would take it like a man, turned the tube back on, got on the floor, put the feet up again, and watched Thomas Rayam block the kick as time expired. Yeah, I'm a bit superstitious.

YESTERDAY

In the head to head battle between Johan and Cain, Johan won easily, 26-8. Fortunately, Cain wasn't himself and I was on the right side of this one. Meanwhile, my bats were rediculously good, led by Hanley (12), Wells (10), Reynolds (8), and VMart (7). They combined to give me 53 bat points and my 79 total led me back up to #26 overall and #872 in the half. Now if I can only manage to prevent Davis from knocking me back down. Also, if you have been stuck on a deserted island, or away at sea for the last two weeks, Mark Reynolds has 11 home runs in his last 13 games and is clearly the hottest bat on the planet.

TODAY

With extremely poor pitching options, the field is a little split on staffs today. Davis and Floyd each garner about 30% of the take, with Kuroda at just over 20% and about 15% from Sanchez. It could be a very long day as I can't see any way that any of these clowns go for much more than 20. Moving day is eminent. Here's my final again, along with the top picks...

C: Martin (VMart*)
1B: Miggy (Pujols*)
2B: Hill*
3B: Reynolds*
SS: Hanley*
LF: Crawford (Holliday*)
CF: Granderson*
RF: Cake (Rios*)
DH: Lind*
PS: Davis (Floyd*)

TOMORROW

Weather:
Pirates/Rocks isolated t-storms
'Stros/Marlins isolated
Reds/Cards isolated
Nats/Braves ps t-storms
A's/O's scattered t-storms
Jays/Yanks scattered
Tigers/Bosox scattered

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Braves, Rangers, Brewers, Cubs, Angels, Mariners, Giants

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Dodgers vs. Martinez (2-0 5.87 in 1 start)
A/s vs. Hernandez (3-4 3.96 in 9)
Tigers vs. Tazawa (0-1 10.80 in 1)
Chisox vs. Fister (0-0 0.00 in 1 IP)

Possible Load-ups:
Twins vs. Davies (3-8 6.37)
Rays vs. Santana (4-6 7.20)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Uggla (0-13 vs. starter)
Paulino (2-11)
Ibanez (5-26, HR)
Morneau (1-15)
Ichiro (2-11)

Pitchers:
Lannan (8-8 3.39, Low K's, 3-7 5.62 road, 2-2 2.46 post break, 1-1 3.00 at Atl)
Hanson (6-2 3.22, 0-0 1.29 vs. Was)
Richmond (6-6 3.97, 3-3 4.04 road, 0-1 12.00 post break, 0-1 27.00 at NYY)
Joba (8-2 3.73, 3-2 4.60 home, 4-0 2.03 post break, 0-0 7.36 vs. Tor)
Oz (6-4 3.61, 1.17 WHIP, 1-0 2.04 post break, at Fla)
Happ (8-2 2.74, 1.12 WHIP, 4-1 1.72 road, 2-2 2.25 post break, at CHC)
Harden (7-7 4.41, 124 K in 104 IP, 3-5 6.84 home, 2-1 1.80 post break, 0-0 1.29 and .1623 BAA vs. Phi)
Blackburn (8-6 3.79, Low K's, 5-0 2.95 home, 0-2 7.89 post break, 0-1 3.00 vs. KC)
Cook (10-4 3.93, 4-1 4.36 home, 0-0 21.60 vs. Pit)
Wolf (5-6 3.55, 0-0 0.00 vs. SF)
Of this crew, Hanson, Happ and Wolf are my favorites. On the downside to these are the facts that the Nats are on fire, I never have liked taking pitchers at Wrigley, and Wolf is not exactly overpowering. In this case, though, I think I will take the lesser evil and take Wolf, in kind of a "safety" move. I'mnot really fond of it, but I am not too high on any of these guys and I have to pick someone.

First:
Tex (2-2 vs. good starter)
AGonz (6-15, 2HR)
Pujols (0-2)
Helton (2-3)
Pena (4-12)
Branyan (2-2 vs. lefty)
I like Gonzo alot with the numbers in his favor, but then again, Pujols is facing a hack. With the possibility of rain in St. Louis tomorrow as the tiebreaker, I think I will go with Gonzalez.

Second:
K Johnson (6-15, HR vs. good lefty)
Pedroia (1-3)
Hill (2-6, HR vs. good starter)
Zobrist (1-3)
J Lopez (6-10 vs. lefty)
I have had alot of success with Ben Zobrist this season and with Santana on the mound, I hope to see more of the same tomorrow. He is by far the best option if you ask me.

Third:
Young (2-3 vs. lefty)
Cantu (2-5, 2HR vs. good starter)
Kouz (2-5)
Crede (1-3, HR)
Reynolds (4-6, HR)
Figgins (1-2 vs. lefty)
Seriously, how can I not take Reynolds tomorrow. It's Livan freaking Hernandez for crying out loud.

Short:
Hanley (8-19, 2HR vs. good starter)
O Cabrera (4-11)
Tulo (1-3, HR)
Hanley looks like the obvious pick, but he is facing Ozwalt. I would take Tulowitzki if he were hitting right now, but he's not. I think I have to stay with Hanley. I may change later, though, if I need cap room.

Left:
Dunn (1-2, HR vs. good starter)
Bay (1-2, HR)
Damon (1-2 vs. good starter)
DeJesus (5-11 vs. good starter)
Crawford (8-21)
I'm a little undecided here as well. I like Braun, Crawford and Holliday. Crawford looks like the pick, but has the least power. Looking at some splits, I see that Braun is much, much better on the road this year, soI can eliminate him. I think Crawford is going to be the pick, but it's a tough one.

Center:
McLouth (4-9 vs. good lefty)
Ellsbury (2-2)
Hamilton (2-3, HR vs. lefty)
Byrd (2-3, HR vs. lefty)
Upton (7-15)
Nothing here impresses me either, so I will take Granderson vs. the Bosox rookie. No real reason for it, I just like it better than the other options.

Right:
Church (4-11, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Cake (2-3)
Drew (2-3)
Hermida (5-12, 2HR vs. good starter)
Hawpe (3-3, HR)
Winn (7-19 vs. good lefty)
Just like Reynolds, I think Hawpe is easily the best pick here. None others considered.

DH:
Scott (1-3)
Ortiz (1-2)
Lind (4-8, HR vs. good starter)
Venable (1-3, HR)
Kubel (5-11)
I am interested in Venable and can't wait to take him soon, but Kubel hits righties so well, I have to take him.

Catcher:
Varitek (1-2)
Salty (2-3 vs. lefty)
Mauer (5-16)
Olivo (5-10, 2HR vs. good starter)
Doumit (2-4 vs. good starter)
OK, I just have to have Mauer tomorrow. He's facing a very weak pitcher and I can't pass on it. Except for the fact that I have some serious cap restrictions right now. Unfortunately, I can't find anywhere where I feel good about a downgrade, so I am just going to stick with Russell Martin.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Martin
1B: Pujols
2B: Zo
3B: Reynolds
SS: Hanley
LF: Crawford
CF: Granderson
RF: Hawps
DH: Kubel
PS: The Wolfman

STAT CORNER

The League Leaders in Quality Start Percentage:
Lee 0.83%
Greinke 0.83%
Johnson 0.83%
Lince 0.83%
Haren 0.78%
Felix 0.78%
Caro 0.78%
Jackson 0.77%
Lowe 0.75%
Lilly 0.74%

The League Worst in Quality Start Percentage:
D Huff 0.19%
D Holland 0.25%
Wellemeyer 0.25%
J Sanchez 0.28%
R Ortiz 0.31%
Richard 0.31%
Stammen 0.33%
M Palmer 0.33%
Sonnastine 0.33%
Owings 0.33%
Davies 0.33%

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Sunday, the 9th

Good morning, everyone. It was a Beam and coke night for obvious reasons, so let's skip the formalities and get right to it. By the way, there are only 27 days until the beginning of college fotball season.

YESTERDAY

I sure hope you had Wainwright, who has turned into a solid ace by the way, as Verl was a total turd and both Haren and Greinke disappointed. I had Zack (and that bastard Soria), who totalled a measly 6 points. My bats were led by Longoria (9) and Vlad (8) andonly combined for 30, giving me a weak total of 36. This dropped me to #31 overall and #1578 in the half as I continue to tread water.

TODAY

Cain and Johan seem to be splitting the PS take pretty much 50-50. After yesterdays flurry of debacles, I have a feeling that both of them will do well and most likely wash eachother out. Major moves up or down are not too likely today. Here's my final again, along with the top picks...

C: VMart*
1B: Pujols*
2B: Hill*
3B: Reynolds*
SS: Hanley*
LF: Holliday*
CF: Wells (Granderson*)
RF: Willingham (Abreu*)
DH: Lind (Vlad*)
PS: Johan (Cain*)

TOMORROW

Weather:
Jays/Yanks isolated t-storms
Tigers/Bosox isolated t-storms
'Stros/Marlins pm t-storms
Reds/Cards scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Orioles, Yanks, Rocks, Mets, Chisox, Dodgers

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Yanks vs. Rzepczinski (1-3 3.74 in 6 starts)
Rays vs. O'Sullivan (3-1 4.24 in 6)
Chisox vs. French (2-2 3.93 in 6)

Possible Load-ups:
Orioles vs. Gonzalez (2-2 6.31)
Jays vs. Mitre (1-0 7.50

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Varitek (2-16 vs. starter)
Youk (3-16)
DeRosa (1-13)
Francouer (3-17)
Wright (2-12, HR)
Castillo (0-10)
Ethier (3-16)

Pitchers:
Jackson (8-5 2.62, 1.12 WHIP, 3-4 2.47 road, at Bos)
Davis (6-10 3.67, 2-1 5.06 post break, 0-0 3.00 vs. NYM)
Garza (7-8 3.63, 3-4 4.09 road, at LAA)
Floyd (9-6 3.96, 4-4 5.58 road, 2-0 1.84 post break, 0-0 4.50 at Sea)
This could seriously be the worst group I have seen all season. I'm not taking Jackson against tht Sox and Garza vs. the red hot Halos is a no go as well. This leaves me with Floyd and Davis. Floyd is pitching well, but sucks on the road and Davis sucks lately, but is decent at home. It's a coin toss kind of day, really. I'll go back to my standard game plan that says NL teams at home get picked ovr AL teams on the road in tiebreaker situations. Davis it is. Ouch!

First:
Miggy (4-11, 3HR)
Pujols (2-8)
I have to go with Miguel here. Tex vs. the rookie could go ok, but I lske him better vs. righties. Pujols is always a safe pick, but I like Miggy's numbers in this one.

Second:
Cano (1-3 vs. lefty rook)
Polanco (8-22, HR)
Schumaker (4-10)
J Lopez (5-11)
Sanchez (2-6)
Hudson (7-19 vs. lefty)
Cano and Hill are the only ones I can realy make a case for here. I like Robbie, andhe hits lefties well. However, I will stay with Aaron as I really don't expect much at all from Mitre.

Third:
ARam (1-2 vs. lefty)
Figgins (3-7 vs. good starter)
This position has the most promise, I think, as Reynolds, Longoria, Arod and Sandoval all look promising. Ultimately, I think I have to stay with Reynolds. As hot as he is, the 0-6 lifetime vs. Pelfrey doesn't bother me.

Short:
Jeter (1-3 vs. lefty rook)
Greene (3-6)
I'm going to have to take Hanley (0-1) over Moehler in this one, simply based on what he is capable of. Jeter, Bartlett and Drew are tempting as well. If Jeter had done anything at all for me this year, he would probably be my guy.

Left:
Damon (1-3 vs. lefty rook)
Bay (3-8 vs. good lefty)
Fonzie (2-3, HR vs. lefty)
Manny (2-2, HR vs. lefty)
Damon, Manny and Crawford seem to be good options. Johnny D has a lefty/lefty match and Manny is in a pitchers park, so I will go with Crawford. He doesn't have too much power, but can easily get 6-8 points simply based on speed. Plus, if Napoli catches, the Rays will be running all over the place.

Center:
Ellsbury (6-14 vs. good starter)
Granderson (2-3)
Ankiel (3-7, HR)
Gutierrez (1-3)
Kemp (5-11 vs. lefty)
I like Wells here as well, since he has gone deep twice for me this week. However, I don't think he'll do it again tomorrow. Instead, I will continue to torture myself with Granderson.

Right:
Ichiro (5-11)
I can't go with Ichiro because I prefer not to take two guys with low power unless I have to (Crawford), so I will take Markakis against the rookie Gonzalez. They have never faced eachother.

DH:
Lind (2-3, HR)
Ortiz (6-14, HR vs. good starter)
This position is pretty ugly tomorrow as well. It looks like Lind is the only option.

Catcher:
Suzuki (3-4, HR)
Torrealba (2-2 vs. lefty)
Soto (1-1 vs. lefty)
Montero (2-4)
Johjima (3-4)
Martin (4-9 vs. lefty)
Once again, it's turd city. I guess I will reach out for Martin. If nothing else, he should surely start.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Martin
1B: Miggy
2B: Hill
3B: Reynolds
SS: Hanley
LF: Crawford
CF: Granderson
RF: Cake
DH: Lind
PS: Davis

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Saturday, August 8, 2009

Saturday, the 8th

Good morning, everyone. Let's get straight to the action today, as I assume many of you were up late last night with all the after hours action we had in the Majors and your patience may be wearing a little thin.

YESTERDAY

If you were wise/lucky enough to have the Bosox or Yanks staff, I am sure you are all smiles this morning. Good call if you did it. However, I know that most of us had no idea that the Giants' gloves would find five holes in them and that Lince and the boys would give up 10 on the day. Fortunately, half of them were unearned. Didn't I predict 3 runs or more against him? Anyway, 5 pitching points was fairly meaningless as most of us had him, bvut mybats were stellar for a change. Mauer (12), Wells (8), and Willingham (7) led the pack as I tallied 45 offensive points for a cool 50 onthe day. This bumped me up a little to #30 overall and #1374 on the half.

TODAY

The pitching is as divers as I expected today and is, really, about as diverse as it can get. Wainwright and Haren both get about 30% of the take, Greinke is at about 20% and Verlander has maybe 12%. It will certainly be an interesting day, as I would be surprised if none of these four leave some of us disappointed. Good luck to you all and here is my final, along with the top picks...

C: Napoli (Mauer*)
1B: Pujols*
2B: Hill*
3B: Longoria (Reynolds*)
SS: Rollins*
LF: Braun*
CF: Sizemore (Granderson*)
RF: Werth*
DH: Vlad (Lind*)
PS: Greinke (Wainwright*)

TOMORROW

Weather:
Bosox/Yanks - scattered t-storms
Marlins/Phils - scattered t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Twins, Jays, Marlins, Cards, Chisox, Brewers, Royals, Angels, Padres, Mariners, Rays, Bosox, Yanks

Teamse Facing Rookie Starters:
Jays vs. Matusz (1-0 1.80 in 1 start)
DBacks vs. Martin (0-2 7.16 in 4)

Possible Load-ups:
Cards vs. Duke (.313 team BAA)
Chisox vs. Huff (5-6 6.81, .366 team BAA)
Bosox vs. Pettite (9-6 4.35, .345 team BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Polanco (4-27 vs. starter)
Morneau (4-21)
Cuddyer (3-17)
Punto (2-13)
Mauer (2-13)
Spam (1-10)
Victorino (3-16)
N Johnson (1-18)
Ryan (1-10)
Hafner (4-30)
Hall (5-29)
F Lopez (1-13)
Sanchez (7-41, HR)
Phillips (1-10)
Cano (3-17)
ARod (1-10)
Swisher (2-11)

Pitchers:
Washburn (8-7 2.93, 1.08 WHIP, 2-1 2.77 post break, 1-0 0.64 vs. Minn)
Halliday (11-5 2.75, 1.08 WHIP, 7-3 2.71 home, 1-2 2.38 post break, 1-0 3.60 vs. Bal)
Johnson (10-2 2.98, 1.11 WHIP, 2-0 4.05 post break, 0-00.00 at Phi)
Piniero (9-9 3.18, 1.11 WHIP, Low K's, 0-1 7.50 at Pitt)
Gallardo (10-8 3.59, 154 K's n 140 IP, 4-3 4.15 road, 2-1 5.26 post break, 1-1 5.14 at Hou)
Wandy (10-6 2.63, 128 K in 136 IP, 5-2 2.12 home, 2-0 1.13 post break, 1-0 1.29 vs. Mil)
Johan (12-8 3.10, 134 K in 145 IP, 4-6 4.48 road, .184 BAA at SD)
Cain (12-3 2.25, 1.16 WHIP, 6-1 1.98 home, 2-1 1.74 post break, vs. Cin)
Vazquez (9-7 2.99, 1.05 WHIP, 164 K in 147 IP, at LAD)
Lester (9-7 3.78, 158 K in 140 IP, 4-4 4.26 road, 1-0 3.46 at NYY)
Sure, there are alot of them to choose from tomorrow, but for me it simply comes down to Johan vs. Cain. Johan has been average on the road, but I really think that the Padres bats are that much worse than what the Reds have to offer and therefore will go with Santana.

First:
Howard (7-19, 2HR vs. good starter)
Pujols (15-32, 3HR vs. lefty)
Konerko (2-4 vs. lefty)
Blalock (22-64, 2HR vs. good starter)
Votto (4-6 vs. good starter)
Youk (9-22, HR vs. lefty)
Youker is a good possibility, as I definately want some Sox bats today, but I have to go with Pujols here.

Second:
B Harris (6-13 vs. good lefty)
Utley (5-16 vs. good starter)
Zo (1-3 vs. lefty)
I think Aaron Hill has the best chance to go off vs. the O's rookie. Zo has me thinking a little, but if anyone goes off at second, I would expect it to be Hill.

Third:
Zimm (3-5)
DeRo (8-23 vs. lefty)
Young (30-79, 2HR vs. good starter)
Lowell (8-34 vs. lefty)
Chipper (2-6)
Figgins (1-3 vs. lefty)
Again, none of this impresses me too much and Reynolds is the hottest bat in the league. Going up against a rookie, he is an easy pick.

Short:
Hanley (12-39, 4HR vs. lefty)
Alexei (2-6, HR vs. lefty)
Tejada (2-6, HR vs. good starter)
Furcal (14-46 vs. good starter)
Jeter (7-20 vs. good lefty)
How can I not take Hanley here? Yean, I know that Moyer has had some decent starts, but the numbers are in my favor on this one.

Left:
Dunn (2-4, HR)
Holliday (5-11, HR vs. lefty)
Lee (4-12, HR vs. good starter)
Manny (6-19, 2HR vs. good starter)
Damon 7-19, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Bay (11-24, HR vs. lefty)
With Bay banged up, its either Dunn or Holliday for me. In this case, I think I will go with Holliday, as I expect a very long day for Zack Duke.

Center:
Ankiel (5-8, HR vs. lefty)
Hamilton (6-17, 3HR vs. good starter)
Gutierrez (2-6, HR vs. lefty)
Melky (6-13 vs. good lefty)
Ellsbury (5-10 vs. good lefty)
This is a very tough call. I think I will go outside the box and take Vernon Wells again against the O's rookie. Hamilton can't hit right now and everyone else faces decent pitching.

Right:
Mags (13-31, 2HR)
Ludwick (6-15, HR vs. lefty)
Hart (11-27 vs. good lefty)
Abreu (2-3 vs. lefty)
Church (3-8, 2HR)
Drew (10-29, 3HR vs. lefty)
Again, I will go outside the norm and pass on Abreu (my favorite of those listed above). Josh Willingham has gone widely unnoticed, but is putting up impressive numbers. He should do the same tomorrow.

DH:
Thames (5-18, 3HR)
Scott (6-12, 3HR vs. good starter)
Thome (1-2 vs. lefty)
A Jones (2-5, HR vs. good starter)
Ortiz (17-47, HR vs. lefty)
If Papi was doing anything at all right now, I'd take him. Instead,I will reluctantly take Adam Lind, again going against the O's rookie.

Catcher:
Doumit (2-5 vs. good starter)
AJ (2-3, HR vs. lefty)
Napoli (1-1 vs. lefty)
Benji (2-5)
Varitek (17-52, 2HR vs. lefty)
VMart (3-10 vs. lefty)
Somehow, I've made it all the way through the lineup with no RedSox. Let's prevent that from happening with VMart.

FINAL LINEUP

C: VMart
1B: Pujols
2B: Hill
3B: Reynolds
SS: Hanley
LF: Holliday
CF: Wells
RF: Willingham
DH: Lind
PS: Johan

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Friday, August 7, 2009

Friday, the 7th

Good morning, everyone. You know, it's easy to blame your strategy when things go wrong. But as all of us who have played this game for a while know, there are going to be days when the shit his the fan. It's all a part of the game. If you are having success, or have been having success, I would not suggest changing the way you play because of a bad day or two. Like the old saying goes, "stick with what brung ya here". i just went through a stretch where I climbed just under 14,000 spots in 10 days and had it not been for two bad staff choices early in the half, I would be only 20 points off the second half Leaderboard. Hey, mistakes happen and sometimes things don't go our way. But aside from two lousy days, I feel like I have been pretty much on point and, therefore, will not change a thing.

YESTERDAY

Obviously, Lee was a good pick yesterday, as the Rocks blew their chance to get to him in the first and put put up a strong 32 points. I probably should have had him myself, but I guess I just haven't gotten used to the fact that he doesn't have Kerry MF'n Wood behind him anymore. Sherzer let me and many others down a good bit yesterday, but fortunately the pen came through and, even though it took 12 innings, we escaped with a decent 20 points. My biggest concern is with my bats, who struggled mightily again aside from Reynolds (10) and Hanley (9). they accounted for 2/3 of my offensive points as my 29 total from the bats gave me a 49 for the day. Surprisingly, this dropped me back to #31 overall and #1566 in the half. Damn.

TODAY

With all the quality starters out there today, I really expected to see some diversity in the picks this morning. I seriously considered going with Carp myself in effort to make a move if Lince goes down. However, 94.4% of those that matter took Lincy today, so once again it will all come down to the bats tonight. In other words, most of us can take it easy tonight and not sweat the staff. Get out of the house and do something, as this evening will be less than exciting. Here's the final, along with top picks (*).

C: Mauer*
1B: Pujols*
2B: Hill (Utley*)
3B: ARam (Sandoval*)
SS: Hanley*
LF: Lee*
CF: Wells (Granderson*)
RF: Willingham (Ethier*)
DH: Thome*
PS: Lince*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Indians/Chisox - scattered t-storms and wind
Twins/Tigers - thundershowers
Rays/Mariners - pm showers

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Orioles, Reds, Bosox, Tigers, 'Stros, Brewers, Phills, Marlins, Royals, Cubs, Braves

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Jays vs. Tillman (0-0 6.75 in 2 starts)
Indians vs. Torres (0-0 4.50 in 1)
Mets vs. Latos (3-1 2.66 in 4)

Possible Load-Ups:
'Stros vs. Parra (6-8 6.33)
Cards vs. Morton (2-4 4.03, .611 BAA)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Winn (4-21 vs. starter)
Taveras (2-12)
Figgins (6-36)
M Izturis (2-18)
Mathis (3-16, HR)
Willits (1-11)
C Davis (1-11)
Varitek (1-13, HR)
Konerko (2-16)
Alexei (1-10)
Polanco (2-16)
Cuddyer (4-24)
B Harris (2-13)
Uggla (3-23)
Doumit (2-12)
Cust (1-10)
Beltre (2-15)
J Lopez (2-12)

Pitchers:
Millwood (9-7 3.39, 2-6 4.41 road, 1-0 2.25 post break, 1-1 7.79 at LAA)
Weaver (11-3 3.79, 7-1 2.79 home, 1-0 6.96 post break, 1-1 5.71 vs. Tex)
CC (11-7 3.79, 4-2 4.02 home, 3-1 4.39 post break, 0-1 5.14 vs. Bos)
Verlander (12-5 3.29, 1.17 WHIP, 180 K in 153 IP, 7-0 1.66 home, 2-1 2.90 post break, 0-0 2.84 vs. Min)
Haren (11-6 2.38, 0.88 WHIP, 149 K in 155 IP, 6-1 2.61 road, 2-1 4.32 post break, at Was)
Wainwright (12-7 2.79, 2-2 1.61 post break, 0-0 3.38 at Pitt)
Greinke (10-7 2.36, 1.14 WHIP, 162 K in 152 IP, 6-3 1.79 home, vs. Oak)
Marquis (12-7 3.49, Low K's, 1-1 2.57 post break, 1-0 1.29 vs. ChC)
Shields (6-8 3.75, 2-4 4.41 road, 0-2 5.47 post break, 0-1 1.23 at Sea)
Kershaw (8-6 2.89, 123 K in 124 IP, 3-3 2.06 home, 1-1 1.80 post break, vs. Atl)
It's pretty easy to narrow this down to 4: Verl, Haren, Wainwright, and Greinke. But that's where it gets tough. I will eliminate Haren because of his mediocre last 4 starts and the fact that the Nats are actually playing pretty well right now. The Twins big boys have hit Verlander pretty well, so I'll drop him too. I really like Greinke's home stats as well as Wainwrights chances vs. Pitt. Tough call. I think I'll give Greinke a chance at home. Without OC and Holliday, and with Cust having no success against him, it's a risk I'm willing to take.

First:
Miggy (4-12, HR vs. lefty)
Morneau (9-28, 2HR vs. good starter)
Prince (2-5, HR vs. lefty)
Pujols (2-2)
Helton (7-18, 3HR)
Lee (16-33, 4HR vs. good lefty)
Blalock (11-27, 2HR vs. good starter)
I really like Cabrera here, as he hits over .350 vs. lefties, but I have to stay with Pujols as I feel that the Cards may really roll on Charlie Morton.

Second:
Phillips (3-6 vs. lefty)
Since Zito has actually been pretty decent lately, I will stay away from Phillips. Zobrist looks decent for tomorrow as well, but I think I will stay with Hill against the O's staff and the rookie that is leading them.

Third:
ARod (2-5, HR)
Sandoval (2-3)
Hall (4-9, HR vs. lefty)
Cantu (4-15, 3HR vs. lefty)
ARam (9-21, 2HR vs. good lefty)
I want to take ARod, but I see that he is only hitting .211 at home and traditionally hasn't had too much success against the Sox (compared to his usual numbers). With Reynolds leaving early last night, I won't risk him either. I like Longoria against Snell out west, but have no quality reason behind the pick.

Short:
Renteria (6-14)
Jeter (2-3)
Hanley (9-26 vs. lefty)
Bartlett (1-2)
I'll pass on Hanley vs. a decent pitcher, but I do like Jeter (who contrary to ARod does pretty well against boston) and Rollins. J-Roll has been huge for me lately, so he gets the call.

Left:
Rivera (8-21, HR vs. good starter)
Lee (7-12, HR vs. lefty)
Braun (3-4 vs. lefty)
All of the above are pretty save picks, but I have to have at least one bat against Hampton. Braun is my man.

Center:
Jones (1-3 vs. lefty)
Rowand (3-10)
Byrd (6-17 vs. good starter)
Granderson (4-11 vs. lefty)
None of these stand out at all except for Jones, who is mediocre vs. lefties. I will go back to Grady against whoever that dude is the White Sox are throwing. Of course this means that Granderson will go deep twice, as is what usually happens with me and these two.

Right:
Cake (1-3 vs. lefty)
Abreu (15-50, HR vs. good starter)
Dye (2-6)
Ludwick (2-3)
I really want Ludwick here, but Werth hits well vs. lefties and surprisingly has more power this year. Werth is it.

DH:
Scott (2-3 vs. lefty)
Matsui (3-4)
Ortiz (7-21, 2HR vs. good lefty)
Kubel (5-15 vs. good starter)
Vlad (30-81, 4HR vs. good starter)
Luke Scott actually hits best vs.lefties, but I have togo with Vlad tomorrow. His history vs. Texas is rediculous and his numbers vs. Millwood are equally as good. Plus, the Angels are on fire and Milly has been on a downslide lately.

Catcher:
Napoli (5-11, HR vs. good starter)
Mauer (11-27, HR vs. good starter)
Kendall (14-39 vs. lefty)
Yadi (3-3)
I think I'll go with Napoli again. Mauer looks good, but I don't want him vs. Verl.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Napoli
1B: Pujols
2B: Hill
3B: Longoria
SS: Rollins
LF: Braun
CF: Sizemore
RF: Werth
DH: Vlad
PS: Greinke

STAT CORNER

Boston Red Sox vs. Ney York Yankees. I have often stayed away from bats in these games as they always seem to have pretty good starters going. Yet, every time I look, they are scoring a ton of runs, like last night. So I did some research:

Games Head to Head (Since 2006): 60
Total Runs Scored: 661
Average Runs Per Game: 11.02
Times Over 10 Runs Scored: 35 (58.3%)
Times Over 15 Runs Have Scored: 11 (18.3%)
Times Over 20 Runs Scored: 4 (6.7%)
Times Less than 5 Runs Scored: 5 (8.3%)

Guess I better start taking more bats when these two play...

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)


Thursday, August 6, 2009

Thursday, the 6th

Good morning, everyone. I just have to say that I, for one, would have loved to see Prince get into the Dodgers lockerroom and start throwing haymakers. Not that I have anything against the Dodgers, it just would have made for great video, almost as fun as watching Jason Kendall try to stop him. Let's move on.

YESTERDAY

I am a firm believer that every now and then we all need a good kick in the ass. Well I got mine last night. Sure, I had the right pitcher in Hanson (26 well earned points), and the day starter out well. Unfortunately, with help from Papi sitting out and Manny afraid to get plunked, my originally good looking lineup combined for a lousy 7 fucking points! To put it in perspective, my entire team got out scored by some clown named Whiteside of the Giants. Now I've been on a good roll lately, so I guess I had it coming to me but damn! Seriously, that sucked. Anyway, my 33 total points knocked me down to #28 overall and #1192 in the half.

TODAY

Lee and Sherzer carry practically all of the PS picks, with Lee winning the battle about 70% to 30%. Either one is a good pick, but I went with Sherzer who came through pretty well for me last week. With alot of day games this afternoon, we should all be able to avoid the responsibility of our jobs with just cause. Good luck and may your bats get you more than 7. Here's my final again, along with the top picks...

C: Napoli (Mauer*)
1B: Morneau*
2B: Utley*
3B: Reynolds*
SS: Hanley *
LF: Rivera (Dunn*)
CF: Grady (Granderson*)
RF: Upton*
DH: Kubel*
PS: Sherzer (Lee*)

TOMORROW

Weather:
Twins/Tigers pm showers
Indians/Chisox few showers

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Cards, Orioles, Chisox, Indians, Rangers, Padres

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Tigers vs. Swarzak (3-4 4.25 in 9 starts)
Brewers vs. Norris (1-0 0.90 in 1)

Possible Load-Ups:
Blue Jays vs. Berken (1-9 6.93

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Tex (2-13 vs. starter)
Baldelli (2-13)
Ludwick (2-14)
Yadi (2-12)
Ryan (2-11)
Victorino (3-19)
Bonaficio (2-11)
As Cabrera (0-12)
Helton (3-19)
Hawpe (1-11)
Figgins (4-21)
Abreu (2-11)
Salty (1-11)
Blalock (1-10)
BJ (1-16)

Pitchers:
Beckett (13-4 3.27, 1.15 WHIP, 132 K in 143 IP, 2-1 2.86 post break, 2-0 5.82 at NYY)
Burnett (10-5 3.89, 2-1 4.38 post break, 0-1 12.91 vs. Bos)
Carp (10-3 2.10, 0.95 WHIP, 4-2 2.47 road, 3-0 1.13 post break, 1-0 0.00 at Pit)
Buehrle (11-5 3.79, 1.15 WHIP, 2-2 4.33 post break, 1-1 4.50 vs. Cle)
Z (7-4 3.35, 2-0 2.49 post break, at Col)
Felix (12-4 2.78, 141 K in 152 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 4-3 4.01 home, 1-0 0.00 vs. Tam)
Jurrjens (9-8 2.85, 4-3 2.86 road, 2-1 2.55 post break, 0-1 7.20 at LAD)
Bills (11-6 3.82, 140 K in 143 IP< 7-4 4.07 home, 2-2 6.87 post break, 1-0 0.00 vs. Atl)
Lince (12-3 2.18, 1.05 WHIP, 191 K in 156 IP, 7-1 1.92 home, 2-1 1.55 post break, vs. Cin)
Quality starters are everywhere tomorrow. Lincy gives up about three runs in practically every third start, and he is due for it tomorrow. However, the number of K's he racks up and knowing that the Reds are prone to strikeouts anyway is why I will reluctantly take him over Carp. Carp and Felix both should do well and would be my next choices.

First:
Morneau (5-17, HR)
Pujols (10-19, HR vs. lefty)
Howard (4-16, 3HR)
N Johnson (5-10)
Lee (1-3 vs. good starter)
There is absolutely no way I would pass on Pujols tomorrow, with numbers like these against Maholm.

Second:
Cano (13-38, 2HR vs. good starter)
Utley (7-20, HR)
Utley has the better matchup here (over Cano), but Robbie's numbers are hard to pass on. Nonetheless, I will. I will notbe taking Chase, though. It will be Aaron Hill for me. Berken is having a really tough time and even though Hill is 0-6 against him, I will override the stats and take the Jays 2nd baseman.

Third:
Crede (1-3, HR)
Beckham (2-4 vs. lefty)
ARam (3-5, HR vs. good starter)
Young (8-23)
Wright (6-8, 2HR)
I would take Wright with the good numbers, but I prefer not to take bats in San Diego. Instead, I will roll with ARam at Coors. I like his chances there.

Short:
Jeter (14-44, HR vs. good starter)
Scutaro (2-6)
Hanley (2-4)
Tejada (3-7, HR)
Here I will stay with Hanley. Rollins is an interesting option as well, but Hanley treated me well today and hopefully will tomorrow as well.

Left:
Bay (6-18, HR vs. good starter)
Ibanez (2-3)
Lee (4-13, HR)
Pods (4-13 vs. lefty)
I understand that Bay went down with an injury of some sort, so I will stay away from him, just in case. I think I will go with Carlos Lee here. It's been a while and tomorrow looks like a good time to go back to him.

Center:
Span (3-10)
Melky (12-35 vs. good starter)
Ad Jones (1-3 vs. lefty)
Kemp (2-3, HR vs. good starter)
There is nothing here I really feel good about, so I will take the opportunity to go cheap. I really feel like the Jays should tear berken a new one, so I will pick up Vernon Wells, even though he is only 1-6 against the starter.

Right:
Cuddyer (3-10)
Drew (6-20 vs. good starter)
Rios (2-2)
Cake (1-3 vs. lefty)
Choo (3-6, HR vs. good lefty)
Ethier (3-5 vs. good starter)
Willingham (1-3)
I am going to get Willingham again. He has continued to hit well since the break and nothing else really stands out. I like Rios somewhat, but his power lacks a little.

DH:
Lind (2-5)
Scott (2-3 vs. lefty)
Thome (6-13, 3HR vs. lefty)
Thome. Even against the lefty, I will not pass on numbers that impressive.

Catcher:
Mauer (5-14, HR)
Posada (9-28 vs. good starter)
Suzuki (5-12)
Napoli (7-12)
Martin (4-9, HR vs. good starter)
I have to go with Mauer here as well. He is the best option as well as affordable in this case.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Mauer
1B: Pujols
2B: Hill
3B: ARam
SS: Hanley
LF: Lee
CF: Wells
RF: Willingham
DH: Thome
PS: Lince

STAT CORNER

The Longest Current Hitting Streaks:
O Cabrera - 15 games
M Young - 12
Abreu - 11
Ellis - 10
Powell - 9
Markakis - 8

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Wednesday, the 5th

Good morning, everyone. I know we can't always catch every game and watch every box score, but as we get closer to September, be sure to watch out for the late season call-ups. For example, Will Venable of the Padres, who is tearing up the league this week (11-23, 4HR and 10 RBI) and Everth Cabrere of the Padres (led all of pro baseball with 73 steals last year, has 15 steals and 6 triples in only 168 AB's this season). We will be seeing more and more of these guys in the coming weeks and they can be great assets to you if used wisely. A good way to be aware of these guys is to watch the PP7 column on BBC and always scroll all the way to the bottom. This way, you won't bee too late on them.

YESTERDAY

After a slow start, Vazquez calmed down and held the Padres in check, giving me 27 points. I will take a decent 27 any day of the week, especially when Johan and his pen get destroyed and Johnson blew up in the 8th. The failures of the latter two (my apologies to those of you that need them) were the difference for me last night. My bats were ok, led by Mauer (10), Rollins (8), and Morneau (6). The 38 total batting points gave me a overall score of 65, leaving me #26 overall and bouncing me up to #790 in the second half, a 500 spot jump. Nice, very nice.

TODAY

Its the Braves rookie Hanson vs. the Cubs vet Harden. Head to head they go. Both are on the road. Both face bad teams. Who will survive? These two split the popular pick pretty about 45% to 45% today. The rest of the picks were basicall scraps, leaving these two to duke it out. I can see good days from both of them, but would not be surprised to see them both struggle either. It's really tough to call and I don't feel too good about either of them. An interesting day could lie ahead. Here's my final again...

C: Shop
1B: Morneau
2B: Hill
3B: Reynolds
SS: Jeter
LF: Manny
CF: Granderson
RF: Willingham
DH: Ortiz
PS: Hanson

TOMORROW

Weather:
Marlins/Nats - scattered t-storms
Rocks/Phils - isolated t-storms
Mariners/Royals - isolated
Red Sox/Yanks - pm showers

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Rocks, Angels, Royals, Mariners, Mets, Braves

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Tigers vs. Hernandez (3-3 3.28 in 9 starts)

Possible Load-ups:
Twins vs. Carmona (2-6 7.13)
White Sox vs. Santana (3-6 7.31)
Yanks vs. Smoltz (2-4 7.12)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Peralta (1-10 vs. starter)
Casilla (2-11)
Drew (0-13)
Ellsbury (2-11)
Beltre (3-18)

Pitchers:
Blackburn (8-5 3.83, Low K's, 3-5 4.58 road, 0-1 9.98 post break, 1-0 1.29 at Cle)
Cook (10-3 3.88, 0-0 4.50 at Phi)
Lee (8-9 3.02, 4-0 1.32 post break, vs. Col)
Joba (7-2 3.58, 2-2 4.37 home, 3-0 0.83 post break, 0-1 4.09 vs. Bos)
Hunter (3-2 2.63, 0-0 0.00 road, 0-0 5.06 at Oak)
Sherzer (6-6 3.80, 115 K in 111 IP, 1-0 4.80 post break, 1-0 0.00 at Pit)
Wolf (5-6 3.47, 1.18 WHIP, 0-1 4.50 vs. Atl)
This is a really poor group to choose from I never go against Boston, so Joba's out. Kee is a good choice, but I hate taking staffs in that park. Even though Sherzer has struggled lately, I like him against the Bucs.

First:
Howard (6-14, HR vs. good starter)
Tex (1-2)
I like Tex alot, but I also like Morneau against Carmona. Because I am still holding out hope that Smoltzie will get it together againm and because of the possibility of rain, I will continue to go with Morneau.

Second:
Uggla (1-2)
Utley (7-19, HR vs. good starter)
Pedroia (6-12 vs. good starter)
I simply think that Utley is the only way to go here. Cook has very few strikeouts, so Chase should at least keep it in play tomorrow.

Third:
Cantu (1-2)
Young (2-3)
Lowell (5-13, HR vs. good starter)
Kouz (4-12, 2HR)
Chipper (17-47, 3HR vs. good lefty)
He's not listed above, because he has no numbers vs. the starter, but Reynolds vs. the Pirates hack should work out well.

Short:
A Cabrera (4-13 vs. good starter)
Hanley (2-3, HR)
Rollins (8-26 vs. good starter)
ARam (2-2)
Wilson (4-10 vs. lefty)
I like Rollins here, but I like Hanley equally. Because I don't want too many Phills against Cook and with weather being a possibility, I have to take Hanley.

Left:
Dunn (3-5)
Ibanez (1-3 vs. good starter)
Bay (4-7, HR vs. good starter)
Diaz (5-10 vs. good lefty)
I like Dunn here, as he seems to always do well for me, but Rivera is facing a lefty in Danks. He is 1-7 against him, but that will not dissuade me this time. The Halo's bats are on fire, so he should get RBI opportunities.

Center:
Sizemore (5-16 vs. good starter)
Granderson (2-2)
Byrd (2-3)
McLouth (3-9 good lefty)
Grady and Grandy are the most sensible picks, but I really have a good feeling about Adam Jones facing Porcello. Porcello has been average at best lately and I really like the game Jones brings. He has never faced Porcello.

Right:
Werth (4-8 vs. good starter)
Abreu (2-5, HR vs. lefty)
Ichiro (7-13 vs. lefty)
I feel like I have to stay with Zona on this one. Justin should have a good one, as should Reynolds. Weather and decent pitching back me off of Werth.

DH:
Kubel (10-20, 2 HR)
Venable (1-3)
I have to take Kubes here. The numbers are too strong to pass on, especially against a really poor starter.

Catcher:
Shop (3-5, HR vs. good starter)
Mauer (3-10)
Napoli (1-3)
Posada (1-3, HR)
VMart (2-5, HR vs. good starter)
McCann (4-5, HR vs. good lefty)
I want Napoli in a bad way, as he kills lefties and usually does very well for me. Unfortunately, he puts me over the cap. Let me re-assess. OK, dump Jones for Sizemore in center. I hope he jacks Blackburn's ass up, too.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Napoli
1B: Morneau
2B: Utley
3B: Reynolds
SS: Hanley
LF: Rivera
CF: Grady
RF: Upton
DH: Kubel
PS: Sherzer

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

What You Are Looking At - A Reminder

As we have some new folks that have joined us lately, and you are much appreciated, I want to take a few minutes to remind everyone what all of these numbers mean to me, and possibly you. I realize, but sometimes forget, that there are alot of numbers here and, if you don't know exactly what they all are, it can be quite confusing. This blog is simply an overview of how I pick my team every day.

Before doing anything else, I have to get out my trusty notebook. On a new sheet, I list out the following:

weather
lefty starters
rookie starters
load-ups
poor bvsp matchups
good starters
each position (for bvsp)

From there, I go to weather.com and see which cities have possible weather issues. Then, I click on to espn.com, go to baseball, then to schedule and begin clicking on each starter for the next day. If they are a lefty, rook, good option (generally lower than a 4.00 ERA), etc. I write them down. I look at their splits to see how they have done lately, at home, etc., and write the numbers down in the proper spaces. Then I go to BVSP (batter vs. starting pitcher). If I see a batter that applies to one of the forementioned categories, I write it down in the proper slot, along with the stats.

This is what you see on the blog. Bats that have not faced the opposing starters are not listed. Hot and cold bats are not listed. There are a few reasons for this. First of all, I want to keep this relatively simple and readable. Overflooding it with stats makes that hard to accomplish. Secondly, from my office, which is where I do this 5 days a week, I am blocked from Baseball Challenge and the BBC-relative stats are not available to me.

When I get home and get the kids down at night, I log into BBC. Keep in mind that this is the first time I have done this all day, aside from checking my rank in the morning for blog updating. At this point, I am ready to pick my team. I go to the pitcher slot first and then review my blog notes. I use the numbers I have listed and my gut feeling to pick a staff. If I have no sure pick, I usually go with what I think the majority will do, as to prevent the possible disaster of being the only one to take a bad staff.

From here, I go position by position, starting at first and ending with the catcher slot. At first, I review my blog notes, which again give me not much more than a starting point. If the guys I have listed as having good matchups have less than a 3.5 PP7 (points per last 7 games on BBC), I usually scratch them out. I am more often than not left with one or two options at this point. Next, I look again at who they are facing, righty vs. lefty and click on their stats to see who they hit well against. I do this to narrow it down to one pick. Finally, I compare my one pick to the other batters I have not reviewed yet who have a PP7 better than 3.5. Are there any other good options facing poor pitching or in hitters parks? If so, I adjust. If not, I have my man.

Then I proceed by doing this for each position, paying no attention at all to the salaries. After my team is selected, if I am under the cap, I am done. If I am over (which is almost impossible right now), I drop the guy I have the least faith in for a cheaper option. End of story.

Ultimately, it takes me 5-10 minutes to select my team once I enter BBC. As I am deciding, I put my feelings in italics under each position as well as why I took who I did. Sometimes, there is simply not a real reason, and other times there are many reasons, as you have seen.

So please don't be surprised if I don't include everyone, this is simply how I do it and not much more. I hope this helps you and that this article clears things up a little for those of you that are new. If you have any questions any time, please feel free to ask and I assure you that I will respond.

Thanks again.

Tuesday, the 4th

Good morning, everyone. I figure its about that time again where we will begin to see some people start to fall of and quit on the game due to poor results. I get that, I really do. However, keep in mind how fast things can change. Like many of you, I have had good and bad seasons in BBC. I thought for a minute that this half would be one of them after the famed Nick MF'n Blackburn incident. Did I quit? No. Did we quit after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No. And before you respond, I know it wasn't the Germans, its an Animal House reference. And as my reward for not quitting, I have risen 13,000 spots in the last 10 days. Don't give up, folks. Or do. Hell, I really don't care. Just something to think about.

YESTERDAY

It started out well, for me anyway, as Verl got shelled in the first. Of course he recovered to get a decent 16 while Haren blew up somewhat and skidded to a weak 11. Fortunately, Cain had his own issues and the bats were the difference maker. My bats were led by Reynonds (true stud) with 13 and Dunn with 11. The rest were pretty mediocre, but sometimes it only takes a few good bats to make a night. My 38 total from the bats gave me a 49 for the night, moving me back into the top 25 overall and #1299 in the half. Could be worse.

TODAY

Vazquez is the overwhelming favorite today, with about 80% of the take. Johan and Johnson get a little action, but nothing significant. Unless you went against the grain, the bats will be the deciding factor today and, while I hate to jinx myself, I feel pretty good about mine. Ther is alot of power today and hopefully they will come through. Watch the Young pick, as the bum rule may be in effect for Reynolds. Here's the final again...along with the top picks.

C: Mauer*
1B: Morneau*
2B: Utley*
3B: Young (Reynolds*)
SS: Rollins (Tulo*)
LF: Soriano*
CF: Grady (McClutcheon*)
RF: Upton (Abreu*)
DH: Hafner*
PS: Vaz*

TOMORROW

Weather:
Cards/Mets - isolated t-storms
Rocks/Phils - scattered t-storms
Marlins/Nats - scattered
Mariners/Royals - pm t-storms

Teams Facing Lefty Starters:
Cards, Indians, Twins, Marlins, Phills, Rocks, Pirates, Yanks, Bosox, Royals, Rangers

Teams Facing Rookie Starters:
Cards vs. Niese (1-1 4.50 in 4 starts)
Yanks vs. Rzepczynski (1-2 3.25 in 5)
Royals vs. French (1-2 3.38 in 5)
Chisox vs. O'Sullivan (3-0 3.72 in 5)

Possible Load-ups:
Tigers vs. Guthrie (7-10 5.37)
Jays vs. Mitre (0-1 7.90)

Bats You May Want to Avoid:
Francouer (1-13 vs. starter)
Renteria (2-17)
G Anderson (2-17)
Sizemore (1-11)
Casilla (0-10)
Doumit (2-11)
Nix (3-17)
Chavez (1-10)
M Izturis (1-10)
Furcal (3-21)
Ausmus (1-16)
Pierre (2-12)
Counsell (9-58, HR)
Cameron (3-26, HR)
Kendall (3-22, HR)
Hall (2-15, HR)

Pitchers:
*At this time the Giants are not set on a starter, although it appears that it will be Joe Martinez.
Hanson (5-2 3.25, 2-1 2.64 road, 1-2 4.05 post break, at SD)
Jackson (7-5 2.64, 1.15 WHIP, 4-1 2.86 home, 1-0 0.00 vs. Bal)
Lannan (7-8 3.41, Low K's, 4-1 1.91 home, 1-2 2.35 post break. 0-1 6.75 vs. Fla)
Happ (7-2 2.97, 1.16 WHIP, 3-1 4.47 home, 0-0 0.00 vs. Col)
Davis (5-10 3.73, 2-4 4.29 road, 1-1 6.28 post break, 1-0 0.00 at Pit)
Harden (7-6 4.50, 115 K in 98 IP, 4-1 2.19 road, 2-0 1.50 post break, 2-0 2.25 and a .118 BAA at Cin)
Braden (8-9 3.89, 1-2 7.40 post break, 1-0 1.64 vs. Tex)
It comes down pretty easily to Harden or Hanson here. Hanson is good, but young. Harden scares me a little, as does the Cincy park. I am going tohope I have the lesser of two evils here and take Hanson. In the end, the Reds bats and the Cubs pen worry me just a little too much.

First:
Morneau (5-11 vs. lefty)
Butler (3-3 vs. lefty rook)
I loke Pujols vs. Neise, but not until he starts to do something. Derek Lee intrigues me a little as well, but as well as Morneau hits lefties (.331, 9HR), I have to stick with him for another day.

Second:
Castillo (2-4)
Sanchez (11-19)
Utley (2-6 vs. lefty)
Hill (1-3)
Lopez (2-6)
I absolutely love Aaron Hill vs. Sergio Mitre. None others seriously considered.

Third:
Wright (7-17, HR)
DeRosa (2-2 vs. lefty rook)
Inge (2-6)
Cantu (2-5, HR vs. good lefty)
Reynolds (1-2)
Figgins (3-7, HR)
Young (4-13 vs. good lefty)
Peralta (4-12, HR vs. lefty)
I really like what DeRosa has done since coming to the Cards, and Reynolds is the obvious pick. I am also tempted to take Arod against the rookie. But, I passed on Reynolds today and don't want to push my luck.

Short:
O Cabrera (3-7 vs. lefty)
Rollins (3-7 vs. lefty)
Drew (2-3)
Bartlett (4-6)
The bad part here is that there are really no obvious choices. The good side is that Jeter kills lefties and is facing a rookie hook tomorrow.

Left:
Crawford (6-8)
Fonzie (2-4)
Rivera (4-10)
Manny (1-3, HR)
Crawford, while good against Penny, is not what I want. Fonzie isn't what I want either and although Holliday is on fire, the Mets park is where fly balls go to die. I feel good about Manny, but for no real valid reason. For some reason I think he goes deep two times.

Center:
Rowand (2-6, HR)
Granderson (4-8, HR)
Victorino (3-6, HR vs. lefty)
Gutierrez (5-8)
Sweeney (6-10)
Byrd (6-16 vs. good lefty)
Hamilton (2-3 vs. good lefty)
If Gutierrez was doing anything at all this week, I would go with him. However, I have to go back to Granderson, based both on the numbers and on the O's staff, or lack there of.

Right:
Winn (15-27)
Mags (4-7)
Cake (5-9 vs. good starter)
Upton (1-2, HR)
Ichiro (2-6)
Abreu (4-11)
Ethier (3-6, HR)
I'm going to have to take Abreu here. I don't want two Dodger bats in an average hitters park and the possibility of rain in Pitt, although it is a slight one, is enough of an issue to prevent me from taking two DBacks (Upton).

DH:
Griffey (4-12)
There is no way I would take Jr, and Papi is the only one I like. But with him, I am way over the cap, amazingly enough. Going back to right, I will drop Abreu in favor of Josh WIllinham, who hits lefties well and, although practically unnoticed, is having a great season.

Catcher:
Shoppach (3-9 vs. lefty)
Mauer (4-7, HR vs. lefty)
Johjima (1-3)
Sizuki (4-7)
I am still in quite a bind financially, so my only option is to go with Shoppach and hope he plays. We'll see, but I don't recommend taking him really. I only will because I have to and I don't want to drop anyone else.

FINAL LINEUP

C: Shop
1B: Morneau
2B: Hill
3B: Reynolds
SS: Jeter
LF: Manny
CF: Granderson
RF: Willingham
DH: Papi
PS: Hanson

STAT CORNER

The Top ERA's at Home (60 IP min.)
Verlander 1.66
Johan 1.69
Greinke 1.79
Lilly 1.86
Lannan 1.91
Lincy 1.92
Cain 1.98
Kershaw 2.06
Wandy 2.12
Haren 2.16

The Top ERA's on the Road (60 IP min.)
Felix 1.96
Lincy 2.45
Jackson 2.47
Carp 2.47
Cain 2.51
Garland 2.59
Haren 2.61
Halladay 2.81
Jurrjens 2.86
Lee 3.03

You don't think home vs. away makes a difference?

DISCLAIMER

My picks are exactly that, my picks. If you choose to follow my lead, you are welcome to do so at your own risk. Thanks as always for reading, please come again, and pass the word if you will.

FU HALL OF FAME

Kerry MF'n Wood (Founder, -14, -11, -7, -6)
Nick MF'n Blackburn (record holder at -43)
Jake MF'n Peavy (2 time offender at -8 and -2)
Houston MF'n Astros Staff(-4)
Los Angeles MF'n Dodgers Staff (-11)
Zach MF'n Greinke (-4)